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Politics : Don't Blame Me, I Voted For Kerry -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sea_biscuit who wrote (79886)	10/18/2006 3:21:37 PM
From: American Spirit	Respond to of 81568

Don't be afraid of smearvets and Rove anymore. They are fading into history. When Rove loses this midterm, he will be very vulnerable to all kinds of criminal investigations. He is going down. The smearvets meanwhile never really existed. It was a dirty tricks hoax funded by Rove and Delay's pals. And Kerry is now immune from it.

To: sea_biscuit who wrote (79886)	10/18/2006 9:33:12 PM
From: ChinuSFO	Respond to of 81568

October 17, 2006 Updated RCP House and Senate Rankings Posted by JOHN MCINTYRE We have updated our Senate and House rankings this morning. A couple of small changes on the Senate side. First, Ohio has moved to "Lean Democrat" from the "Toss Up" category. It had been our opinion that Sherrod Brown's very liberal record in the Ohio congressional delegation would provide enough fodder for DeWine to keep this race close and coupled with the Republican GOTV make this race a toss up on election day. It may get back there, but it looks like the Republican Party's implosion in Ohio is just becoming too much for DeWine to overcome. Today's Quinnipiac poll shows DeWine moving from essentially tied in mid-September (Brown 45% - DeWine 44%) to down a sizable 12-points. Granted this is only one poll, and a Rasmussen Reports survey taken over the same time gives Brown only a 6-point lead. But with the RCP Average now at Brown +6.8%, and climbing, and with Strickland headed for a huge win in the governor's race, Sherrod Brown has to be considered the favorite. In Montana, we have bumped Conrad Burns down to only the fourth most endangered incumbent. RCP still has the race rated "Leans Democrat" but, perhaps tellingly, Tester has not been able to put Burns away. The conservative tilt to Montana and the fact that Burns can probably expect strong national support from the GOP down the stretch gives Republicans a shot to hold this seat. The current RCP Senate Averages project a six seat pick up for the Democrats - but that is with Missouri and Tennessee showing Democratic leads of only 1.4% and 0.8%, and these races are just too close to give either side a clear advantage. Projecting only those races where one party has greater than a 3.5% lead in the RCP Average points to a 4-6 seat pickup for Democrats in the Senate. On the House side the polling is a lot more suspect. A rough count of RCP's updated House list looks like the Democrats would pickup some where in the neighborhood of 13 - 19 seats (they need 15 for control.) If the final three weeks of the election continue to go the same way the last fourteen days have gone for Republicans, that number could go a lot higher. But the odds would favor a pendulum swing back toward the GOP at least once in the next few weeks. John Hostettler and Don Sherwood are the only incumbents to crack the Top 5 most vulnerable Republican held seats, and as of today it is hard to see how either of them wins. Indiana State University released a poll this week of 625 likely voters showing Hostettler down 23 points, and while he is almost certainly not down that much, Hostettler's 19th century brand of campaigning may finally catch up to him this year. In Pennsylvania 10, Sherwood's affair and assault allegation in the post-Foley environment looks likely to end his congressional career. The only other incumbent in the Top 10 is NRCC chair Tom Reynolds in New York 26 who looks to be the second direct casualty of the Mark Foley scandal, right after Foley's own seat in Florida's 16 Congressional district. Numbers 11-20 on the list are where the House will likely be won or lost. In that group of ten seats there are eight Republican incumbents: Ohio 15 (Deb Pryce), Indiana 2 (Chris Chocola), Pennsylvania 7 (Curt Weldon), North Carolina 11 (Charles Taylor), Connecticut 4 (Chris Shays), Indiana 9 (Mike Sodrel), New Mexico 1 (Heather Wilson), and Pennsylvania 6 (Jim Gerlach). If half of these embattled GOP incumbents can hold on, Republicans stand a good chance of hanging on to the House - but just barely. time-blog.com