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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mr.Creosote who wrote (72307)	10/18/2006 6:00:38 PM
From: UncleBigs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

the mere suggestion that one can predict the future course of price movement simply by only looking at its past is laughable to say the least. The things that are important to me are (1) Trend, (2)Seasonality, (3) Sentiment. IMHO all of these are bullish Let's see....you laugh at looking at the past, but you believe in chasing the trend and seasonality. How the hell do you know the trend and seasonality without looking at the past? What you're doing is looking backward and assuming the future will be the same as the past. That's called Post hoc ergo propter hoc reasoning and it's a fallacy. It's like saying the rooster always crows before sunrise, therefore the rooster caused the sun to rise. Hmmmmmm.....you're right, that is funny. I hope for your sake you know when to head for the exit door ahead of 8,000 hedge funds.

To: Mr.Creosote who wrote (72307)	10/18/2006 8:58:38 PM
From: Walkbarr	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I wouldn't be looking at the seasonality this year to be long into year end. If you were short the market this Sept. - Oct as the typical weaks months of the markets, you would have lost a lot of money. I wouldn't expect this rally to last into January. JMO...