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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jjayxxxx who wrote (214422)	10/21/2006 2:24:56 AM
From: Petz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

jj, I thought that the CC did, in fact, give numeric revenue guidance for Q4. I think it might be a first, but I remember other quarters where the official statement said something like "seasonal growth" and one of the analysts gave a numeric range that was affirmed. From this q's transcript: Glen Yeung - Citigroup What is normal seasonal growth for you in the fourth quarter? Just what is your interpretation of that? Bob Rivet Market conditions would say this over a recent history of time is on the low end is 6, on the high end is 13, and most likely averages around 10. Then later on, Tim Luke - Lehman Brothers Just to be clear, in terms of the revenue, Bob, when you're saying seasonality, the average is 10%, so stronger than normal seasonality would imply that your target would be above 10% revenue? Is that how we should basically figure that? Bob Rivet That's a good characterization. We'd say average is 10%. OK, it is a bit hard to interpret. Would the number be 10%, or 12% or 15%? But, for AMD a recent pattern is that they either say seasonal, above seasonal or below seasonal. We could add the categories "way above/below" if that has been said in the last 3 years. Penalty of 2 would occur for predicting the opposite of what AMD says, 1 if you are off by one "position" or 0 if you predict AMD's guidance perfectly. Keep in mind that you are trying to predict AMD's guidance, not what actually happens. If Q1'07 turns out to be below seasonal, just as you predict, but AMD says it will be "above seasonal" in the Q4 conference call, you lose 2 points. So the question would be, What will AMD's guidance for the next quarter's CPU revenue be, as revealed in their QX conference call? (pick one) O - above seasonal O - seasonal O - below seasonal Future guidance is a very strong determinant of stock price, which is why I'd like to see it represented somehow. For Intel it's a no-brainer. Petz