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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (2943)10/22/2006 10:54:53 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 50156
 
Sly, certainly one of your better post of late. Not that I agree w/everything you said by any means, but it's creative thinking. There are however plenty of holes in your story. Your conviction which you view as your greatest strength is in my opinion your biggest weakeness (it kept you mostly on the sidelines since HUI 150). I don't feel 425-450 POG is implausible by any means in the next 3-12 months. But we differ in that I still feel this gold bull is just getting started and may not peak till 2015 or 2020. Debating you (along w/most on SI is futile) since I've never once seen you admit that you could be wrong or have been wrong. Thanks for sharing your thoughts though. I think you would be much better served if you spent less time defending your record and bashing those w/differing views. Get yourself a blog and see if people are willing to pay for your thoughts. Do something constructive and quite wasting your time.



To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (2943)10/23/2006 3:51:49 PM
From: wsw1  Respond to of 50156
 
slider,

you are comparing apples to oranges when you conjure the whole HUI 100+ pt. drop with a 3,000+ pt. drop of the DOW...

simply speaking, the small size of market capitalization of the HUI compared to that of the DOW grossly accentuates any price fluctuations when the underlying commodity of the HUI companies gets slammed on the futures markets...the sheer leverage of HUI to $GOLD amplifies the movements of increases/decreases in the POG...



To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (2943)10/24/2006 1:06:24 PM
From: RonMerks  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 50156
 
Why inflation threat today is different.

Interesting article by Morgan Stanleys Steve Roach about deflationary pressures on wages around the world. This is the other half of the inflation equation. We had it when gold zoomed to $800 in 1980, but we dont have it today.

morganstanley.com

Im curious to others opinions on why gold never rallied as Slider mentioned, during the 20 years from 1980 to 2000; even though Central Banks were printing fiat non-stop? Increasing money supply is the basic definition of inflation. On that basis, inflation has been non-stop. So why has gold only really broken out 2 times in nearly 25 years?

It seems like golds upside is more determined by WAGE inflation, than MONEY inflation.

So is wage inflation the half of the inflation equation thats missing here? Is this the reason gold didnt rally for 20 years and the reason it corrected here?

TIA,

Ron