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To: Mike Johnston who wrote (72664)	10/23/2006 3:09:07 PM
From: UncleBigs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

What i see is that the economy is sinking on a real basis, it is booming on a nominal basis. If the economy were sinking on a real basis, we would see increasing job losses. Unemployment claims are at cycle lows and job openings are at cycle highs. This tells me the economy is still booming on a real basis.

To: Mike Johnston who wrote (72664)	10/23/2006 3:15:08 PM
From: CalculatedRisk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Retail sales aren't booming ... at least not according to the data.

To: Mike Johnston who wrote (72664)	10/23/2006 4:29:13 PM
From: CalculatedRisk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Retail Sales. Here is the actual data: First, you can go to the BEA to see how they calculate Retail Sales. Scroll down to: Key source data and assumptions for "advance" estimates bea.gov The main category for retail is #6, Other Goods. It accounts for about 33% of all PCE and most of retail goods (not services). It excludes autos, building materials, garden equipment and supplies dealers. The BEA shows the data comes directly from the Census Bureau advanced estimates - that you can find here: census.gov If you do the addition, you get the following nominal results: Quarter, annualized nominal change from previous Quarter, YoY nominal change. Q1: 8.9% 8.8% Q2: 8.1% 8.5% Q3: 4.0% 6.9% Convert to real numbers, and Q3 2006 retail sales were sluggish at best. Adjusted for inflation, retail sales were barely positive for the quarter. On a YoY basis, retail sales don't look so bad - but that is because growth was strong earlier this year. "Retail" and "Booming" don't belong in the same sentence for Q3 2006.