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Technology Stocks : Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kovachs who wrote (5409)	10/23/2006 11:39:30 PM
From: pcstel	Respond to of 8420

What radios are priced at and whether the rebate is instant or mail in have big impacts. Let's say that again. The ASP of radios at retail has a large impact on CPGA. If their was a $50 reduction for the fourth quarter and only the fourth quarter that would have a large one time impact. You take that one time impact and use it as a baseline. Simply wrong and illogical. Your so close.. Sometimes I say to myself.. Self.. I think he has finally got it figured out, but then you contradict yourself with your own logik. But, you have this one correct.. The ASP of radios at retail has a large impact on CPGA. If their was a $50 reduction for the fourth quarter and only the fourth quarter that would have a large one time impact. Exactly. It would have a large impact if the reduction only happened in the fourth quarter. And in this case.. It did only happen in the fourth quarter because it was in the fourth quarter that XM chose to actively compete against SIRI for the retail subscriber. So common sense will tell you that cost are higher when the two companies compete against each other for each potential subscriber that walks through Best Buys door. Competition creates pricing pressure on the suppliers. I mean.. You claimed that OEM costs were higher because they GAVE AWAY FREE RADIOS to the new car buyer. Although, we never got a definitive answer on that because we never heard the results of the scheduled pillow fight between you and your bunky. Now you are claiming that Retail was higher for this one-time event because they provided some coupons for discounted radios. But it would seem to me that FREE radios on the OEM side of things would present higher CPGA costs than some Howard Stern discount coupons on the retail side of things. Yet, somehow, retail was dramatically higher with more retail subscribers using some vouchers than gobs of OEM subscriber getting FREE Radios????? So I don't quite follow you on this train of thought here. You're interpretation of the facts is wrong. You must have be confused with your bunky?? It really is very simple.. XM's net xadds for Q4 2005 showed ~87% retail subscriber adds. XM's CPGA for Q4'05 was quoted at ~$141 vs. ~$110 for other non retail heavy quarters.. A ~30% increase. These are the facts.. The FACT is that XM's CPGA expenses increased dramatically when their retail gross adds increased dramatically.. Again, these are the facts.. But, now, suddenly you think some $40 discount coupons and or rebate is more than FREE Radios at the OEM level??? Sirius does not provide a CPGA figure. It must be calculated out from the financial statements. Takes about 2 minutes. LOL!! Well, it only takes about 1 minute to get the exact number of SIRIUS terrestrial repeaters out of the financial statements.. But, somehow, the same person that "self-calculated" SIRI's CPGA, also "self-calculated himself to a 100% ERROR" on the number of SIRIUS repeaters that he reported as a FACT. So I am sure you can understand that my self-confidence in the people that claim they are self-calculating CPGA is not very good. I mean.. They had a hard enough time just supplying a direct number from the SEC statements. (SIRI's Repeaters) Now you want us to let this guy roam around a Financial Statement picking out numbers (which he has shown he is unable to do without wild modifications) and then subjecting those to a dose of Bitter calculator syndrome??? Sorry, but no thanks... I don't consider those FACTS.. More like BITTER OPINIONS. Sirius does not provide a CPGA figure. It must be calculated out from the financial statements. Exactly my point!! Personally, I would find it unacceptable in a long term investment if a subscriber model did not provide me with CPGA figures.. Just as I was critical with XM when they did not provide Gross Add information. Look, you and your bunk mate can calculate, add, subtract, divide, and multiply all of the Financial numbers and arrive at any number you want to convince yourselves is correct.. Just don't expect me to believe your numbers are valid.. Because, as history has shown.. Your bunky can't even pull out direct figures out of an SEC statement. As to my story, it's the same story I have always had. Retail CPGA is lower. Well, it's a nice bedtime story.. Unfortunately, you have provided no data to support you thesis, and conversely have spent considerable time trying to splain' away the direct evidence that contradicts your story. Sorry, if I don't "understand" your story... I'll stick with the FACTS. And so it goes, PCSTEL