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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mindykoeppel who wrote (145845)	10/24/2006 11:50:35 AM
From: Art Bechhoefer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Since QCOM neither warned nor changed earlier estimates, it's likely that the earnings will come in on target, or perhaps slightly better than expected. The weakness in QCOM shares price, IMHO, is based on continuing uncertainty surrounding the various litigation issues involving QCOM, NOK, BRCM, etc. The weakness is compounded by reports, such as the recent article in WSJ, which have difficulty explaining (intentionally or not) the various rulings and related news involving QCOM and its adversaries. As I've noted before, there is a bias among institutional investors and investment journals against QCOM. Looking at the BARRON'S index showing companies mentioned in its weekly articles reveals that BARRON'S (owned by Dow Jones, the publisher of WSJ) mentions either Nokia or Motorola on average about 3 times more frequently than QUALCOMM. Articles in BARRON'S that deal specifically with QUALCOMM almost always picture the company in an unfavorable light. In the past year, they published about four articles that contained inaccurate or misleading statements. This is par for the course. Why it should be that way is hard to say, but for many years I've noticed that those who write articles or comment on technology companies seem to be reluctant to admit that you can have great technology in a company founded and staffed by people of Jewish heritage. Apparently, a company would fare better (in news reports) if its top executives had names indicating Anglo-Saxon, Chinese, Korean, Hungarian, or Indian backgrounds. It is a very strange, and ultimately foolish way to judge a company. Art

To: mindykoeppel who wrote (145845)	10/24/2006 12:54:57 PM
From: Jim Mullens	Respond to of 152472

Mindy, Re: QCOM mid-quarter guidance / warnings - “Any opinions please” Per my notes on EPS guidance- ........Guidance....................................................Actual...%inc fr #1 1st Call Rpt ..........#1...................#2.................#3....................................................”surprise” Q1....$0.36- 0.38......$0.39...................................$0.39.....+ 5.4%........02.6% Q2......0.35- 0.37.......0.40- 0.41............................ 0.41.....+13.8...........02.5 Q3......0.36- 0.38.......0.38- 0.40....0.41- 0.42...........0.42.....+13.5...........00.0 . Q4......0.39- 0.41...................................................0.45......+12.5% (based on Q3???) Fy06..1.43- 1.47.......$1.53- 1.57....1.61- 1.63..........1.67......+15.2% Consensus ..Q4..$0.41...............................................................0.45.....+09.8% ..FY..$1.63..............................................................$1.67.....+02.4% Fy05..1.17...............................................................1.67......+42.7% As one can clearly see, the earnings “surprise” factor was negated almost in its entirety by the mid-quarter updates. In fact, by my recollection the QCOM share price declined after reported earnings after each report. Without the mid-quarter updates, the comparison to the original quarter guidance would have resulted in a significant “surprise” ranging between 5% and 13% for the last 2 quarters. Michael Thompson of Thompson First Call was on CNBC this AM speaking on earning “surprises” and how that significantly impacts the share price. In fact, First Call, Reuters, and even the Schwab Equity Ratings system prominently features the earnings “surprise” metric in stock ratings. For all intents and purposes, mid-quarter updates have become counter productive in this regard. With attention given to the “surprise” factor by the rating services and the “market” (in all its wisdom), its a wonder why any company would continue to provide mid-quarter EPS updates as they essentially eliminate the surprise.