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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (10507)	10/24/2006 11:34:18 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 218050

<... says just about all.> Indeed. And in so few words! :-] No speed-reading needed. <On GOLD, do you mean to say that you believe it will not reach 2000 USD/oz?> No. In financial relativity theory, it's a metaphysical certitude. The question is just when. My guess on the timing of the predictable inevitability is about 2020 [I really think that 2015 should do it, but I have an unfortunate habit of thinking that things will happen faster than they really do, so even stretching it out to 2020 is probably not enough. Maybe 2030 would be more realistic]. The tricky thing is that it's not going to be a linear transition into the future. It'll be more an exponential function [in the mathematical sense of the term, not the popular]. Initially the change will be slow, but increasingly rapid until all of a sudden it'll be game over. A lot of the exponential buildup has been done - the foundations are in place. The die is cast, the scene is set. Predicting the inevitable demise of GSM was similarly problematic. It was obvious that it was inevitable in 1996. But it could have been as early as Y2K or as late as 2010 - especially since the GSM Guild hijacked QCOM technology and shifted their loss of business into the future. Nokia is being prosecuted for that effort now. The buildup is slow, but the transition increasingly rapid until one day the old system is turned off. Telecom NZ is turning off the analogue system [at last] next year. GSM will go the same way. <BTW, on Taiwan, do you know why the mainland is now so relaxed about the province? > Yes. That's because when they conducted the Year of the Feather Duster military manoeuvres with Russia, they realized that an invasion wouldn't be all that much fun. They also realize that Taiwan isn't going anywhere. Also that things are okay as they are. Also that provoking the USA isn't necessarily such a smart thing to do [Bush would just love to turn his military loose on something more suitable than a damn guerilla war door to door amongst civilians and a Chinese marine-borne invasion would be easier. Boats can be easily popped off from B52, Cruise missile, etc]. I doubt that Hu Jintao has seen the light that human Virtuous Values are better than his stone age Aztec ideas. So it's more likely the pragmatic reasoning of the previous paragraph. Mqurice PS: I suppose go-d will reach $2000 sooner than 2015 because there will be some big fright events that will pop it up there for a short time. Maybe I'll go back to 2015 for the first meeting of that mark. The 3 year moving average USD price will take longer to get to $2000.