The Senate will be a real horse race....
Democrats Just Shy of Senate Control, Poll of 5 Key Races Finds
By Heidi Przybyla
Oct. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Democrats are just shy of gaining enough support in key battleground states to capture control of the Senate. Voters' sense that the country is on the wrong track may offer opportunities to close that small gap in the final days of the congressional election.
A new Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll of five states with the most hotly contested Senate races shows Democrats with the lead in Ohio, New Jersey and Virginia. Republicans are ahead in Tennessee and Missouri. In all five contests, the margins were close enough that the advantage could change by Election Day.
Most experts say the Democrats must win at least four of these five races to obtain the net gain of six seats they need to take control of the Senate. If the poll results hold, Democrats would be within one seat of the 51-vote majority in the chamber. ``It's going to be a tough road for them,'' said Susan Pinkus, the Times polling director. ``But it could be the year of the Democrat,'' she said. ``It all hinges on the getting out the vote, energizing your base.''
There's good news in the poll for the Democrats' bid to win the 15 seats they need to take over the House, as voters in all five states said they would prefer Democrats to control Congress after the Nov. 7 elections. Most significant may be the 24-point Democratic advantage in Ohio, where as many as five Republican seats could be in jeopardy.
The Democrats are also preferred by a wide margin in New Jersey and Virginia, states with vulnerable Republican-held House seats. In Missouri and Tennessee, the focus is on the Senate contests, with no close House races anticipated by experts.
Three More Seats
On the Senate outlook less than two weeks before the elections, both sides agree Democrats hold leads in three Republican-held seats, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Montana, and in 16 Democratic-held seats. If those advantages hold, Democrats have to score a net gain of three more seats to obtain a majority.
Election experts Charlie Cook and Stuart Rothenberg both say there are four toss-up states -- Missouri, Virginia, Tennessee and New Jersey, where Democrats are defending a seat -- and both agree Ohio is tilting toward the Democrats.
The public is more negative about the direction of the country than in 1994, when Republicans swept Democrats from control of both chambers. The poll showed that three-fifths of respondents or more in each state say the country is on the wrong track, compared with about half of voters in 1994.
The poll found that in all five states except Tennessee, those who said their vote would be affected by President George W. Bush's policies also said by almost a two-to-one margin that those policies would have a negative effect.
The poll data were collected separately in each state by telephone Oct. 20 to Oct. 23.
Ohio
In the Ohio Senate race, Democratic Representative Sherrod Brown is ahead of Republican incumbent Mike DeWine, 47 percent to 39 percent. The sample of 507 likely voters has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.
Ohio helped tip the presidential election in Bush's favor in 2004. Since then, the state's Republican Party has been rocked by a series of ethics controversies, including, most recently, Representative Bob Ney's guilty plea in the Jack Abramoff lobbying scandal.
The economy is also a major issue in Ohio, which had a 5.7 percent unemployment rate in August, the nation's eighth-highest. By a margin of 56 percent to 30 percent, Ohio voters said they prefer Democrats to handle the economy, the poll found.
Brown, 53, holds a 21-point advantage among women and a 12- point lead among independents. Fifty-six percent of suburban and city voters favor Brown, while DeWine, 59, gets 63 percent of the rural vote.
Jim Friedman, a lawyer who has run campaigns in the Midwest for presidential candidates such as Jimmy Carter, said he told Democrats that ``if things start to go bad, Mike DeWine will be in a freefall,'' and ``that's exactly what's happened. The war's gone bad. The Ohio economy is on the rocks.''
Virginia
Democrat James Webb, a Vietnam veteran who served as Ronald Reagan's Navy secretary, has a narrow 47-to-44 percent lead over Republican incumbent George Allen in the Virginia Senate race.
The sample of 385 likely voters has a margin of error of 5 percentage points. Webb, 60, is a critic of the Iraq war; Allen, 54, is a former governor and representative who backs Bush.
Webb's lead is attributable to the national anti-Republican mood as well as Allen's gaffes in recent weeks, said George Grayson, a government professor at the College of William and Mary in Williamsburg, Virginia.
``It's just part of the national typhoon against Republicans,'' Grayson said. Eighty-nine percent of those who plan to vote for Webb say they disapprove of the job Bush is doing.
Allen has been battered by questions about his racial and ethnic sensitivity. At an Aug. 11 rally, he referred to a Webb campaign worker of Indian descent as ``macaca.'' The term is considered a racial slur in some parts of the world.
Allen has asked voters to judge the candidates based on their positions on issues. A majority of voters, 55 percent, agree, saying that the candidates' positions on the issues is more important than their character; 14 percent said character is more important, the poll found.
Tennessee
Bob Corker, 53, the former Republican mayor of Chattanooga, is narrowly leading Democratic Representative Harold Ford Jr., 49 percent to 44 percent, for the Tennessee seat being vacated by Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist. The poll of 515 likely voters has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.
If he wins, Ford, 36, would be the first black senator from the South since Reconstruction.
His politically prominent family has been a weight on his campaign. His uncle, State Senator John Ford, has been accused of taking $55,000 in bribes. His father, former Representative Harold Ford, has successfully fought fraud charges and his aunt was ousted from her state Senate seat after voting irregularities.
``I know his uncle. He was a crook,'' said Janice Stone, a 56-year-old retiree from Reagan, Tennessee.
``If Harold Ford was an orphan I'm convinced he'd win,'' said Cook, editor of the Cook Political Report in Washington.
The poll shows voters see little difference between the candidates on honesty and integrity, giving Corker a 34 percent to 29 percent lead over Ford on that issue.
New Jersey
In New Jersey, Democratic Senator Bob Menendez is leading State Senator Thomas Kean Jr., a Republican, 45 to 41 percent, according to the poll of 314 likely voters, which had a margin of error of 5.5 percentage points.
New Jersey hasn't elected a Republican to the Senate since 1972, and the political environment makes it tough this year, said Ross Baker, a political science professor at Rutgers University in New Brunswick, New Jersey.
``The combination of the war, the scandals, the mood and temper of the country is one that favors Democrats,'' Baker said. ``And it's a Democratic state. New Jersey is reverting to type in this election.''
Kean, 38, has focused on what he calls ``Menendez's corrupt practices,'' including a report that Menendez collected $300,000 in rent from a nonprofit agency that he helped qualify for millions in federal loans. Menendez, 52, has denied wrongdoing.
Menendez leads, though more voters -- 17 percent -- view Democrats as most corrupt, compared with 11 percent of respondents who said Republicans are more corrupt. Sixty-one percent of respondents said both parties are equally corrupt.
Missouri
In Missouri, which went for Bush in 2000 and 2004, the poll shows incumbent Republican Senator James Talent is in a tight race with state Auditor Claire McCaskill. Talent is narrowly leading, 48 percent to 45 percent. The sample of 593 likely voters has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.
In her campaign, McCaskill, 53, is trying to link Talent to Bush and his policies. Talent, 50, voted with Bush 91 percent of the time in 2005, according to Congressional Quarterly. John Hancock, a former Republican Party executive director, said ``the strength of Jim Talent'' is keeping the race tight.
Talent has strong backing from Republicans, at 91 percent. Fifty-six percent of rural voters prefer Talent, compared with 37 percent who said they back McCaskill.
Voter preference is tightly linked to Bush's job approval, with 75 percent of those who disapprove of the president planning to vote for McCaskill, and 80 percent of those who approve backing Talent.
McCaskill is focusing on Talent's opposition to a stem-cell research initiative on the Missouri ballot, called Constitutional Amendment 2. The initiative would ensure Missouri patients access to any stem-cell therapies and cures and allow scientists to conduct any research permitted under law, while banning human cloning.
The poll shows strong support for the amendment, with 58 percent of Missouri voters saying they would vote for it, compared with 35 percent who said they oppose it. |
