To: SilentZ who wrote (307629 ) 10/25/2006 11:31:08 PM From: tejek Respond to of 1574839 New York Districts : Republicans were heartened earlier in the year by polls showing their New York incumbents in good shape, but suddenly there is panic in the Empire State over several incumbents and one open-seat race. New York Republicans usually don't need competitive statewide races to drive turnout, so the uncompetitive Senate and governor races -- both with Democrats strongly favored -- would not be a factor in a normal year. But this is not a normal year. Rep. John Sweeney (R) in District 20 is sending up warning flags as his race against Kirsten Gillibrand (D) tightens. The public polls vary wildly, but Republicans are now fearful that they have another seriously wounded patient on their hands. Leaning Republican Retention. The complaint in Washington is that state Sen. Ray Meier (R) in open District 24 won't go negative enough against Oneida County District Attorney Mike Arcuri (D). But Meier's campaign offices have become tense as publicization of Arcuri's personal scandals actually appear to be backfiring against Meier, even though he has avoided bringing them up himself. Meier feels enough pressure that he has convinced the retiring incumbent, Rep. Sherwood Boehlert (R), to come out of hiding and help him. Leaning Democratic Takeover. The alarming public poll showing Rep. James Walsh (R) losing to challenger and former Rangel staffer Dan Maffei (D) District 25 is not credible, but Walsh leads by only about five points, far less than he is accustomed to at this point in the cycle. This race will be close. Leaning Republican Retention. NRCC Chairman Tom Reynolds (R) has partially recovered from the initial shock of the Foley scandal. His wealthy District 26 opponent, Jack Davis (D), is an eccentric amateur. But the burden remains on Reynolds to make the comeback and cleanse himself of the Foley situation. The RNC is spending money on his behalf. Leaning Democratic Takeover. Rep. Randy Kuhl (R) in District 29 has seen his support among women evaporate. Kuhl's dirty laundry -- including the old alleged threat against his wife with a shotgun -- had been aired before, but now perhaps it is finding a more receptive audience in this tough Republican election year. Eric Massa (D), a former naval aide to Wesley Clark, hopes to take advantage by Election Day. Leaning Democratic Takeover.