Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Road Walker who wrote (307633)	10/25/2006 11:28:28 PM
From: tejek	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1571788

Outlook While our seat-by-seat analysis shows Democrats winning the House by a four-seat margin, the overriding question is whether a "wave" will deliver a really big Democratic majority. That presumes an overwhelming sentiment that negates seat-by-seat analyses. Actually, waves-overriding all previous expectations-are very rare in recent American political history. The only wave we have seen during the 39-years of this publication was the Watergate election of 1974, when the 49-seat Democratic gain surpassed all forecasts. The gain of 49 was extraordinary because of the very high Democratic level going into the election, raising the party's House margin to an astounding 145 seats. The famous Gingrich election of 1994 was not a wave. We predicted a 45-seat gain, based on seat-by-seat analysis, and the actual pickup was 51. The reasons for the 2006 wave talk: a) the huge generic edge by Democrats over Republicans in current party preference, which never has been a good predictor of House elections; b) the mood inside the Washington Beltway, also a poor predictor historically; c) the run of bad news for Republicans and the Bush Administration; and d) unpopularity of President George W. Bush and the Iraq War. The Bush-Iraq popularity is a constant and a major factor in many (but not all) races. But the corrosive political fact of higher gasoline prices has been mitigated, and the impact of the Mark Foley scandal has diminished. Still to be determined is how the conservative base's unhappiness over government spending and immigration will factor in the election. While Republican politicians are wringing their hands as they await Nov. 7, their Democratic counterparts are euphoric in anticipation of winning back control of the House and perhaps the Senate. However, these are the same Democrats who confidently predicted John Kerry's victory in '04 and their takeover of Congress in '02. A more sober Democratic analyst, who did not predict victories in those two years, currently forecasts a gain of 21 seats in the House and four in the Senate-exactly what we expect. Outside the mid-term elections, the big news of the last two weeks was the virtual announcement of his '08 presidential candidacy by Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) on NBC's "Meet the Press." It was no slip of the tongue. Obama clearly intended to show his cards. Although Obama had been on TV interviews all week promoting his book, only Tim Russert asked the right questions. Obama has clearly made the supporters of Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) very uncomfortable, but it remains to be seen whether he has moved too soon. Our current count is that, if the elections were held today, Democrats would gain control of the House, with a pickup of 21 seats, but Republicans would kept the Senate while losing four seats.