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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: eracer who wrote (214992)	10/25/2006 10:09:01 PM
From: pgerassi	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Dear Eracer: Even if I came up with the links, you would snipe at them. What constructive points have you to debate? Oh, yeah, none at all. As for the unit market size, a simple calculation shows that I am right. There are over 6.5 billion people in the world. Subtract out the 1 billion in developed countries. That leaves 5.5 billion. Halve that to get the number of PICs needed world wide by 2015 (50 by 15 initiative). Thats 2.75 billion. That requires about 300 million on average. But wait, the population is growing at 5% a year to 7.2 billion by 2015. That means that 450 million PICs are needed per year. But will a 2006 PIC be enough for 2015? Doesn't the cycle from top dog PC to a glorified print server take just 5 years? So we have to replenish the PICs every 5 years plus add one for every two children born. The first means that by 2015, we are need 620 million PICs to keep the PICs up to date and 150 million more for those being born. And that puts us at 770 million. And that is with just 50% penetration. At 63%, we would need 1 billion PICs a year. And then there are those that would be bought by the developed world for set top boxes, libraries, schools and such. One every other year per person is not out of the question. After two years, they are picked up, restored for use in developing countries and sent there. Retrieving 25-50% of their value towards a new one nicely recycling them. Two years later, they are just given to third world countries. Pete