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Strategies & Market Trends : Contrarian Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pcyhuang who wrote (572)	10/25/2006 10:20:10 PM
From: puborectalis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4080

One of the classic contrarian plays "JDS Uniphase: JDSU guided to $312-$328 million in FY1Q sales. Our $326.3 million estimate is above consensus, which stands at $321.6. Our estimate is based on checks into the Optical business, which suggest another strong quarter of demand with continued capacity constraints, combined with management’s comments around the reverse stock split that it would only implement the reverse if it saw continuing EBITDA improvement. In our view, the fact the company did the reverse implies that revenues should at least be within the top half of the guidance range. Our EPS forecast of $0.02 for the quarter compares to consensus at $0.01. We note that if JDSU does produce an EPS profit for the quarter this will be the first EPS profit in five years at the company. We expect the December quarter to mark the first positive operating margin in over 5 years at JDSU. Given the pullback JDSU shares have seen in the past week following the reverse stock split we view the stock as attractively valued and recommend buying the shares aggressively in front of the FY1Q earnings report. Consistent with our investment thesis on the stock, we are looking for an upturn in global carrier triple play spending in 1H CY 2007 to drive outperformance in financial results and expect more or less inline results before that in CY 2H 2006." biz.yahoo.com

To: pcyhuang who wrote (572)	10/25/2006 11:06:14 PM
From: MACD X	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4080

pcyhuang no insider on tlab for over 3 years. form4oracle.com

To: pcyhuang who wrote (572)	10/26/2006 2:37:46 PM
From: MACD X	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4080

Pcyhuang, explain why now. stockcharts.com On post 527 a contrarian alert was sent out on TLAB, while criterias were meet a chartist would pass this one over. I am a chartist and you are a fundimentalist. This is what attracts me to your site. I never use much fundimentals and would like to learn stratagys with fundimentals involved simular to what you use. Many of your pics are right on and this one may be also but from a chartist stand point I would be afraid on this one now. Yes we have had a capitualtion type volume spike but it is at a trendline break. Look at the past history of this stock. It has failed every time. What is different this time? Nothing to me. The stock is channel downward and we are at the top of the channel. A breakout to new highs may attract some of my attention if it were to occur. Below is a shorter term chart of an entry that I may take. stockcharts.com

To: pcyhuang who wrote (572)	10/30/2006 10:02:34 PM
From: pcyhuang	Respond to of 4080

TLAB -- Barrons favorable article Full Story: online.barrons.com Tellabs (TLAB) which builds equipment that helps wireless companies handle increased traffic, reported a 41% gain in third-quarter earnings last week. But the company's shares tumbled 6% following its release of revenue guidance. However, a favorable article in Barron's titled, "Going the Distance," noted that even though short-term investors may be disappointed in Tellabs, long-term players still love the company because it is positioned to benefit from some of the fastest-growing areas of the telecommunications market. On Monday, shares of Tellabs rose 0.21, or 2.03%, to close at 10.55. Over the coming years, Tellabs should lift earnings by 10% or more, enjoy strong operating cash flow and benefit from a balance sheet that boasts $2.73 a share in cash. Its products also allow phone companies to offer voice, data and video services to residential homes over fiber connections. On Monday, market trading was volatile with some investors concerned about slumping consumer spending and other upbeat about corporate profits and the slide in crude oil. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which closed at record highs four straight days last week, jockeyed between slight gains and losses throughout the day before finally closing down 3.76, or 0.03%, to 12086.50. The price of light, sweet crude tumbled $2.39, or 3.9%, to $58.36 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the biggest percentage decline in crude since August 2005. There is rising skepticism among energy traders whether OPEC will follow through with threats to curb production. OPEC member Indonesia, one of the smaller producers of the cartel, said it didn't plan to cut output. The S&P 500 rose 0.59, or 0.04%, to 1377.93. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index gained 13.15, or 0.56%, to close at 2363.77. (For a further insight into the technology sector, check out this week's cover story, which concluded that tech stocks will continue to recover, but some sectors will thrive while others struggle.) The feature, "Heading North," painted a favorable outlook for Canadian Natural Resources which over the last twenty years has gone from a flyspeck to one of the largest independent oil and gas companies in North America. The growth has been driven by shrewd acquisition and drilling activity that bears the imprint of the company's vice chairman and largest individual shareholder, Murray Edwards. Shares of Canadian Natural Resources, however, fell 1.33, or 2.52%, to close at 51.39. The company's success should continue because it has both attractive conventional oil and gas assets, mostly in Western Canada, and a promising oil-sands project in Alberta that is expected to start producing crude in 2008. The stock dipped to 42 early this month, when oil prices tumbled. But it has rallied lately, helped by a rise in crude prices and by Royal Dutch Shell's offer last week to buy out minority holders of Shell Canada for $7 billion Bulls argue that Wall Street is giving the company little credit for its valuable oil-sands play and that the stock could jump in the next two years as the oil-sands development nears completion. pcyhuang