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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: que seria who wrote (38407)10/25/2006 10:21:40 PM
From: orkrious  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 39344
 
I see buying NG now as a bet on the POG going up meaningfully before Barrick can corral enough NG shareholders at its current offer price.

I am taking that bet. I think there are enough large shareholders who aren't going to tender, and I think PoG is about to explode.

Given the huge capital costs associated with this project, there is massive leverage to a higher PoG.

That also have Donlin and it's questionable whether Barrick will earn their interest.

I'm not suggesting someone put all their money into NG. With a higher PoG it has tremendous upside. I've owned most of mine for years, and I have a decent amount at $3-$4. It's my largest position, and thanks to Barrick there is a free put at the current price.

Who knows, maybe they will sell Donlin to Barrick and find another partner to develop Galore.

I won't be surprised if we have new PoG highs by the end of the year (despite what Slider thinks <g>), and at that point NG should have a bid in the mid-20's.

I own a lot of smaller stuff too, but with no downside NG deserves a place in most portfolios.



To: que seria who wrote (38407)10/25/2006 11:20:43 PM
From: orkrious  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 39344
 
I just realized spent a few more minutes looking at that study. The IRR goes from 10 to 40% with a PoG going from $525 to $625.

They also assume copper prices which are way too low, and there is a hell of a lot of copper there.

If the PM bull is truly starting up again here, NG isn't cheap, it's dirt cheap.