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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold and Silver Juniors, Mid-tiers and Producers -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: koan who wrote (23501)10/26/2006 12:05:37 AM
From: onepath  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 78414
 
Zinc production falling in Peru

Lima, Peru (Platts)--25Oct2006
Peru's copper output rose 6.0% on year in July to 87,494 mt, the Energy
and Mines Ministry said Wednesday. Among largest miners, Southern Peru
Copper's output climbed 41.5%, Antamina's rose 20%, Phelps Dodge-owned Cerro
Verde's production rose 2.7% and Xstrata Tintaya's output climbed 14.8%.
Copper output in the January-July period rose 5.8% to 596,994 mt, the
ministry said. July gold output fell 2% compared with a year earlier to 16,809
kg or 540,424 oz. Among major producers, Minera Yanacocha, owned by
Denver-based Newmont Mining Corp., boosted output by 2% while Minera Barrick
Misquichilca's output dipped 10%. In the January-July period, Peru's gold
output rose 14.4% to 122,476 kg or 3.9 million oz.

Zinc production fell 2.7% in July compared with a year earlier to 101,306
mt. Among major producers, Volcan's production fell 49.8%; Antamina's output
dropped 34.7% and Milpo's production tumbled 40.5%. In the first seven months
of the year, zinc production fell 6.6% to 671,396 mt.

Lead output in July declined 1.6% compared with a year earlier to 26,016
mt. Atacocha's output fell 47.9% while Milpo's dropped 16.6%. In the
January-July period, overall lead output decreased 2.5% to 175,099 mt.

July's silver production rose 14.7% to 296,019 kg or 9.5 million oz.
Buenanvetura boosted is output of the metal 10.8%. In the first seven months
of the year, overall silver production rose 7.7% to 1.96 million kg or 62.9
million oz.

Tin production fell 4.9% in July compared with a year earlier to 3,416
mt. In the January-July period, tin production fell 3.8% to 23,480 mt. Minsur
is the country's only tin producer.

Iron output rose 13.2% in July compared with a year earlier to 419,818
mt. In the first seven months of the year, output of the metal rose 10%
compared with 2005 to 2.88 million mt. Chinese-owned Shougang is the country's
only producer.



To: koan who wrote (23501)10/26/2006 10:21:14 AM
From: Mr. Aloha  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78414
 
Nothing mean or argumentative in analyzing different stocks and different styles of investing/trading.

While for an active trader like you, one day performance can be very significant, it means nothing to me, as I’m focused on the long term.

BWR does look undervalued vs. other producers on a market cap per proven pound of zinc basis. Thanks for the explanation for why that’s the case. I agree that a big run in the price of zinc should benefit them and their warrants more than other producers because of that higher leverage to zinc. They also have some catching up to do with the other producers at new highs while they still are well under their spring high.

However, MMGG has much more leverage to zinc than BWR, as it is far more undervalued on a market cap per proven pound of zinc basis. I don’t know what will happen in the next few months, but I’m confident that longer term MMGG will far outperform BWR and BWR warrants. Just looking at the producers with far less proven zinc and probably higher costs than MMGG will have, MMGG could have 40-50 x upside just to get to where those producers are now, which is still very undervalued relative to other stocks. Discounting for the time value of money and the equity dilution they’ll need to finance the move to production, they still have at least 10-bagger upside from here when with a positive feasibility study, even if zinc doesn’t move up at all. If the feasibility study shows higher profitability than today’s producers, the upside could be much higher.

The discount for not being proven economically feasible yet and not being listed on a major exchange is far too high, IMO. In a year, I think those hindrances will be gone and the stock price will be much higher as a result, even if zinc is lower.

Given GTI did the positive feasibility study for the similar Skorpion mine and got them into production when zinc was about ¼ the current price, I have no doubt the feasibility study for MMGG will be very positive. That’s why my money’s on MMGG.