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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mistermj who wrote (207040)	10/27/2006 9:07:09 AM
From: Noel de Leon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

Hubbert's peak was predicted to occur in the 70's. See your source, page 7. Similar techniques were used to predict world peak oil production. They(predictions) are between 1995 and 2037. Looking at world production for 1995-2004 we can se a very flat curve indicating that a peak for world oil production either is here or close. For 2004, 2005, and aug. 2006 the numbers are 83, 84, and 86 million barrels per day. In 2000 production was 80 million barrels per day. You might want to read this source for the consequences of peak oil. Here the claim is that peak oil is no more than 15 years away. projectcensored.org According to another source US oil reserves are 21 billion barrels. It is important to discriminate between reserves and resources. "Like the mining term ore, oil reserves are by definition economic, or profitable. Resources, conversely, are less tangible. Two practical definitions are: Reserves: Engineers' (conservative) opinions of how much oil is known to be producible, within a known time, with known techniques, at known costs and in known fields. Conservative bankers will loan money on reserves. Resources: Geologists' (optimistic) opinions of all oil theoretically present in an area. Conservative bankers will not loan money on resources. Explorationists must first find—and then petroleum engineers convert—theoretical resources into producible reserves. An example of a resource that will never become a reserve is gold dissolved in seawater. Use of either term by any group depends greatly on whose money is involved, e.g., resources mean your money—reserves mean my money. Differences can be enormous. Government agencies and academic scientists tend to estimate resources, whereas industrial/oil companies appraise only reserves. The public, using its money to buy gasoline, is interested in producible reserves, not in theoretical resources." dieoff.org infoplease.com By the way Hubbert died in 1989 and therefore did not have access to new information or calculation techniques 10 years later that could have improved his predictions. One thing you can not take from him: in 1956 he predicted that US oil production would peak in 1970. It did. Having read your source I can only conclude that it is filled with propaganda, not facts relevant to world oil production.