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Strategies & Market Trends : Contrarian Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pcyhuang who wrote (605)	10/26/2006 11:24:42 PM
From: - with a K	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4080

Then you truly are a contrarian and I salute you but I will watch RHAT from the sidelines. Say you give your product away for free because you can't charge for it and you make less than $300mil on servicing that free product. An 800 lb. gorilla with an egotistical CEO that lives to win decides to offer a better service for half the cost. He's got an infrastructure, ad budget, and media coverage that completely dwarfs you. That's a very tough business model. One that I wouldn't want to be in. I once worked for a company that was in the cross hairs of Larry Ellison. His company bought one of our company's products. I knew people who were close to him. My impression is that he is the ubercompetitor who absolutely hates to lose. A Bill Gates + Donald Trump who surrounds himself with loyal soldiers. If you don't produce you're out, quicker than a George Steinbrenner. Unlike Gates, Ellsion can't keep a wife and doesn't have a huge foundation or kids at home to dilute his attention to business. Perhaps RHAT being the bull's eye will sharpen their focus and execution. That's what competition is all about. Downplay the news, tell everyone you've expected it and welcome it. The company I worked for? It's gone, a $14 billion concern thrown on the trash heap of progress and consolidation. RHAT is toast.

To: pcyhuang who wrote (605)	10/27/2006 1:38:50 PM
From: gladman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4080

>>Oracle's organization is vastly superior. They'll be providing a better product at a better price. Nobody can say right now whether Red Hat will even be able to survive<< They made the same assertion for WEBX when MSFT introduced it's web conferencing software, they made the same assertion about INTU when MSFT announced it's SBU accounting software... i can site more examples but the results are the same, plunge in share price then recovery. Excellent contrarian candidate.