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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kayaker who wrote (73959)	10/27/2006 10:48:10 AM
From: Frank	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206191

Kayaker -- be very skeptical of those UCS data-- we had an exchange of posts here a few months ago showing their bias--Frank

To: Kayaker who wrote (73959)	10/27/2006 7:03:06 PM
From: quehubo	Respond to of 206191

The weather has been warmer over the last few years, what that means for this Winter remains to be seen. Last January we had 687 HDD verse the 71-00 average of 917 with std dev of 104. That 230 hdd would have been over 300+ bcf of ng demand. The heating season was mild through November and the cooling season was way above normal from June through September. The heat this year vanished in mid August. I was beating the bear drum pretty hard through last January. For now I am seeing 10 or so weeks of cool weather behind us and cool forecasts in front of us near term. Forecasts I have seen also in general have tilted recently more HDD closer to normal. We dont need a normal Winter, but $7-8 NG and something close to normal would do the trick to get ng storage down to 1,300. The lack of Canadian activity and all the rest will do the trick through 2008. With a normal start to Winter through year end the "excess" discount to na ng equity plays should be removed. I will be watching the weather very closely this year and acting accordingly.