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To: aleph0 who wrote (215255)10/27/2006 9:36:58 PM
From: pgerassiRead Replies (2) | Respond to of 275872
 
Dear Aleph0:

There are 486 million (from Q3 ER) + 57 million (from ATI acq) or 543 million total. About 10 million are held in stock options.

577/543 is 106% of total outstanding shares. 577/1.188 is 486 million. But even after accounting for that, institutions still have 106% of total possible shares. If you take in that float stayed about 13% prior to the acq., then factoring that back in, there are 106%/87% = 1.218 or 22% too many shares out there.

87% of 486 million is 423 million minus 32 million known short plus 57 million from the acq equals 448 million. 577 million minus 448 million divided by 543 million is 0.2379 or about 24% of outstanding shares are short (naked or otherwise) or 129 million shares.

Any way you figure it, the problem is quite massive. Supposedly this should drop to the standard 85-90% range in 5 business days. Well that many shares did trade in the last week. If by Tuesday that institutional shares held number hasn't dropped to 500 million, an equity call should be done.

That would be par for both the October surprise trend and of course, Holloween. Scare the shorts!

Pete