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Politics : Rat's Nest - Chronicles of Collapse -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wharf Rat who wrote (4946)	10/28/2006 11:12:46 AM
From: Wharf Rat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24210

Koppelaar: Peak Oil, Separating Facts from Fiction Posted by Prof. Goose on Wednesday October 25, 2006 at 10:28 AM EST ) [editor's note, by Prof. Goose] This is a guest post by Rembrandt Koppelaar, Chairman of ASPO Netherlands. In the discussion about the date of peak oil production there is often a lack of a common framework. This makes it difficult to compare arguments concerning the date of peak oil / liquids production. In this post I outline a set of clear suppositions that, I hope, will help to understand the issue better. My personal knowledge comes from dedicating a large part of the past years my life on the issue of peak oil and energy. In 2005 I and several friends established the Dutch Cluster of ASPO. Some of the information in this post comes from the ASPO Netherlands database which includes oil field developments throughout the world. There's more… (2006 words)(Not; I cut and pasted some and it is above. Lots of graphs,too) \| Comments (0 new, 86 total) #1) Liquids Production has not increased since the 4th quarter of 2004. #2) Current World conventional oil + NGL production is declining at an approximate annual rate of 4%. For 2006 this means that 4% of 81.76 mb/d (added sum of world conventional oil + NGL production) needs to come on-stream from new liquid sources such as oil fields under development to keep production steady. #3) The increase in world liquids production from current developments in the oil industry is sufficient to offset declines until 2010 plus an increase in production to meet low to medium demand. #4) The Peak in world liquids production is mainly influenced by new discoveries and non-conventional production increases, not by increasing the recovery factor of an oil field. #5) Oil Discoveries have been declining since the `60s. We are currently producing three to four times as much oil as is being found. #6) Conventional oil production will likely peak in the beginning of the next decade. #7) The increase of non-conventional liquids production has it's limits due to scalability effects. #8) Liquids production will probably peak in the next decade. theoildrum.com