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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mistermj who wrote (207207)	10/28/2006 12:55:46 PM
From: geode00	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

How are you forming your opinion on this subject? You're so adamant that everyone is wrong but none of your links supports your opinion. Either you have to get better links or you have to change your opinion.

To: mistermj who wrote (207207)	10/28/2006 10:37:06 PM
From: neolib	Respond to of 281500

The sky is always falling to some people...it just fits so well with a certain type of politics and fear. Yeah, terrorism comes to mind.

To: mistermj who wrote (207207)	10/29/2006 2:13:53 PM
From: Wharf Rat	Respond to of 281500

Have oil supplies peaked globally? It looks as if the ongoing tug-of-war between the oil bulls and bears is heating up. That provides the big question as to whether global oil supplies have peaked, or if there are additional reserves hidden away in the Earth's recesses that have only begun to be tapped. This debate has lately been engaged in by such leading energy experts as geology pundit Daniel Yergin, who professes oil supplies to be available well past the end of this century. On the other hand, hedge fund proprietor T. Boone Pickens, a hands-on oil patch veteran, claims that the 2-to-1 ratio of depletion over new reserves, since 1970, is bringing an ultimate shortage crisis to a head. This time, however, the protagonists of oil abundance are Saudi Arabian state-owned Saudi Aramco, the world's largest oil production company. Its chief executive, Abdullah S. Jum'ah, claimed that the world contains more than a century's worth of crude oil, at present production rates. Sharing similar thoughts were expressed by senior spokesmen from Exxon Mobil, who argue aggressively that oil shortages in the foreseeable future are a myth. The crux of the pro-con argument seems to lie in the proven amount of oil reserves recoverable at reasonable cost and current technology. Also to be considered are the fears of the Saudis, who aborted the development of oil shale in the U.S. almost 30 years ago, by flooding the global markets at progressively cheaper prices. It's curious that the major oil oligarchies seem compelled to broadcast major new deep sea finds, such as the Jack II Gulf of Mexico oil field, which will not be in production for five years, if then. The Saudis, with a quarter of the world's substantiated reserves of over a trillion barrels, now contend that the Earth's producible potential is 5.7 trillion barrels of oil. This is five times the amount accepted by the world's leading statistical organizations, such as the International Energy Agency, the U.S. Department of Energy, and the National Petroleum Council. Such mainstream analysts see a practical limit to supply. This number is pegged at 100 million barrels a day by Robinson West, chairman of highly respected consulting firm PFC Energy. This compares to a global demand level of 84.8 million barrels a day this year, and the 100 million barrels limit by 2012. The key to a balanced supply/demand equation is extraction technology and cost. Obviously, the more difficult the extraction, such as deep sea wells, the more sophisticated is the prospective technology and its attendant expense. Both the Saudis and the major oil companies have conveniently left these major factors out of the discussion. Prospective estimates of profitable development of the recently discovered Jack II field would mean price per barrel of oil well above the present level, adjusted further upward by inflation in the future. Technology necessary to reach the ultimate extraction levels referenced by the Saudis would necessitate further development costs and techniques not yet available. Also to be considered are the added costs necessary to refine the high sulfur crude which is predominant in Saudi Arabian and other Mideast oil fields. With only 20 percent of the world's oil reserves considered light sweet crude, this means the construction needs of a large number of new refineries, almost all of which will be located outside of the United States. As for now, it serves the perceived benefits of both the Saudis and the world's leading oil multinationals to dampen the public outcry for meaningful energy alternatives that will eventually replace fossil fuels as the driving force behind the internal combustion engine. As yet, that level of urgency has not yet been attained; and will not unless a public outcry demands a government-led national commitment. thedesertsun.com