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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold and Silver Juniors, Mid-tiers and Producers -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: que seria who wrote (23781)	10/29/2006 1:18:38 PM
From: John McCarthy	Respond to of 78419

Hi qs please understand that I am very sincere when I write this: that was a wonderful post that you posted and I hope you will continue to post your thoughts ... to the big question of when interest rates might be cut ... >>>>>>>> I expect the Fed's next discount rate move is lower, but I'm guessing that won't happen for months (as long as possible, maybe >1 year). >>>>>>>> there are at least 37 economists that agree with your time frame in that USA Today carried a story about this either (1) this past Monday or (2) two Monday's ago .... top lining it .... they are in sync with your viewpoint(s) ..... >>>>>>>>> If big USD bond buyers just slow down or stop adding to their holdings for a while, the buck tumbles >>>>>>>>> thanks, buried in my own thoughts and hadn't realized this ..... my favorite part >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.. I've always thought the key for gold is the market's perception that the Fed is or will soon get behind the curve on inflation. Cutting rates to stave off or dilute recession, consistent with a gradual devaluation of the dollar, will turn eyes to gold. Gold will become all the more common a refuge if our trading partners engage in a tit-for-tat beggar-thy-currency response to thwart our attempt to devaluate ourselves out of as much of our pile of debt as our politicians figure they can get away with. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.. having said all the above, for better or worse or DUMBER, just want to justify <g> what appears to be my hurried-ness and gloomy_ness ..... what follows are NO FACTS , just long-winded opinion .... and which a reasonable person might justifibly view as - nutty .... reading the Mish board has put me in the state of mind that the ENTIRE state of Arizona is 'death valley' at least with respect to housing prices .... Arizona is toast .... ditto parts of Florida and parts of Texas .... additionally, (a) you will see a downward revision to USA GDP on Monday .... (b) Walmart sales (again Monday) have fallen off the map (yes exageration but they are really down) (c) the hyenias have landed: (1) FBI investigating mortgage holder fraud meaning that when someone took out a mortgage 20 months ago and LIED about their income (and everyone looked the other way) now the mortgage holders are coming after them (sick) (2) the snake-oil vendors are here - give us power of attorney and we will sell your house - give you money - and then sell it back to you at reasonable prices (this is where FBI should be) (d) Mish thinks we are already in a recession .... or a smidgeon away from it ..... so I will not go that far but ask the question: What happens if 4th qtr GDP is -0- or negative? Ben will know --before-- Dec 31, 2006. The $$it will hit the fan in all USA political circles. I think his stomach will get quesy and he will cut rates. I also think - beforehand - gold will be pounded severly southward before the announced cut because that has been the running MO even as recently as the last Fed NO CHANGE announcement (think gold went down about $10 to $15 bucks prior to announcements. In closing, I've talked too much and in the process may have drowned out your many fine INSIGHTS. Not my intention .... Its just - well - I don't like the feel of things. And just about the only thing I don't worry about is the price of gold going forward .... I sincerely hope you will continue to post your thoughts on this topic .... and I will learn to be a better listener and keep my big fat YAP shut .... regards, John