Democrats see long-term rebound in Western states
By NOELLE STRAUB
Gazette Washington Bureau
WASHINGTON - Democrats' hopes for a political resurgence in the Mountain West have soared nearly as high as the region's snow-capped peaks recently.
Party officials want not only to increase their tally of governors and members of Congress next month, but also to put some Western states in their column for the 2008 presidential election.
But despite all the recent talk about Westerners becoming the new faces of the party, even many Democrats concede they have much work to do in the region to pull off their goals.
Trying to capitalize on the potential shift in what has been a reliably Republican region, Democrats scheduled a Nevada caucus to be held in 2008 one week ahead of the New Hampshire presidential primary. And Democrats may hold their 2008 national convention in Denver to highlight the West.
They are trying to build on a number of recent successes. Four Western states, including Montana and Wyoming, that all had GOP governors have elected Democrats since 2002.
In Colorado in 2004, Democrats won control of both houses of the state Legislature for the first time in 40 years, and the Salazar brothers won U.S. House and Senate seats that had been Republican. The state may elect a Democratic governor Nov. 7.
Just this week, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report moved Wyoming Rep. Barbara Cubin's re-election chances to a more vulnerable category, from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican." In Montana, Democrat Jon Tester poses a real threat to GOP Sen. Conrad Burns.
Democrats control at least one house in half the Mountain West state legislatures. They have a chance to pick up U.S. House seats in Colorado, Nevada and Arizona. Even in Idaho, which went 68 percent for President Bush in 2004, Democrats have a shot at picking up the governorship and a congressional seat.
"No question about it, there is a Democratic resurgence in the West," said Democratic pollster Mark Mellman. "It's very important for our party to continue that trend. ... Democrats are winning races in the West, something we haven't done in a while."
Mellman attributed the change to the same national trends that are boosting Democrats across the country this year, to an increased Latino population and to a strong libertarian streak in the West that rejects an "increasingly invasive and intrusive federal government."
He noted that although John Kerry campaigned in Arizona, New Mexico and Nevada during the 2004 campaign, he didn't win any. But Mellman predicted that will change.
"In '08, I think those states are going to be even more in play than '04," he said.
But the party will only cement the gains if it maintains a focus on the West and cultivates the Democrats already in power, such as Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer, he said. "The more these folks become identified as real leaders of the Democratic Party, the more likely it is Westerners see their futures with Democrats," he said.
Charlie Cook, a highly regarded nonpartisan political analyst, said the Mountain West is not trending Democratic so much as it is "trending less Republican."
"In large part, it is that the greater social and cultural conservative focus of the Republican Party has hurt them with many Westerners who are fairly conservative but also libertarian," Cook said. "When they say they don't want the government interfering in their lives, they don't just mean guns, but they mean their private lives as well."
Democrats can take advantage of that fact as they also "get smart and shut up about guns and other issues that many Westerners find offensive."
Cook added that in many Western states, Republican candidates run in congressional primaries that are won by "very, very conservative candidates who are pretty far right by even their state's Republican standards" - but who then have trouble in general elections.
Leon Panetta, former White House chief of staff for President Clinton, said Democrats must make a greater play for the West.
"As a Westerner, I think it's really important that Democrats make a real effort to go after those states even though they don't necessarily represent a lot of electoral votes," he said. "To win national elections, you've got to win some of the key Western states."
This year's potential gains may be "candidate driven" as strong individuals run in the West, he said. "I think it's worth a continuing investment to try to go after these states and build a strong organization that will be there not just for this election but for the future as well," he said.
Panetta said the Democrats also must embrace Western values, including "family and independence and hard work and a real appreciation for the mountains and the valleys and the beauty that are part of this part of the country."
He acknowledged there's much work to be done by Western Democrats.
"In particular, what's going to have to happen is those who are elected are going to have to show that they can govern," he said. "I think that will tell you about whether this is just a glitch or whether it's a real trend."
The Democratic senators from Montana, Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico hope the 2008 convention can boost the party's fortunes in the West. They jointly wrote a letter to Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean urging him to choose Denver.
"We believe the West to be the new frontier for the Democratic Party," they wrote, adding that picking Denver "would capitalize on and reinforce the success that Democrats are having in Western states."
Some Democrats give credit for the potential gains to Dean, who instituted a 50-state strategy of divvying up money and hiring staff across the country. Democratic House and Senate campaign managers have differed sharply with Dean over that spending priority.
Between 30 and 40 full-time staffers are on the ground in the West, according to DNC officials. State parties make the hiring selections and supervise the staff, which works to mobilize voters and get the national party's message out.
"Democrats know that we share the same values as the West: good jobs, hard work, keeping big government out of our lives," said DNC spokesman Luis Miranda. "The Rocky Mountain West as much as the rest of America wants to see a new direction in Washington, and that's what Democrats are offering."
Miranda said the region is important, but just one part of the 50-state strategy. "We need to stand up for our values and let people know what Democrats really stand for, not what Republicans say," he said.
Republicans dispute that Democrats will make additional gains in the region.
"We've enjoyed a great deal of success in the Mountain West and we look forward to continuing into a successful Election Day," said Republican National Committee spokesman Tucker Bounds.
He said Republicans are "right" on the issues to attract Westerners.
"The Republican Party is a party that advocates policies that are much more friendly to rural America and (better on) resource issues," he said. "There's an independent streak that exists in the states in the West that favors the party that thinks the government should be smaller and more effective and taxes should be lower and we should be growing the economy and letting local governments take control of their own issues."
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