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Politics : Actual left/right wing discussion -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: mistermj who wrote (3854)10/30/2006 11:17:07 PM
From: Wharf Rat  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10087
 
He may have to back off to '05, but could have the right number. We won't know when it happens until a few years after the fact.
DEFFEYES says peak was December 16, 2005.
Message 22762127

Right now, May 2005 is the winner, but December 2005 and APRIL 2006 are statistical ties. Minor revisions and changes to methodology could very easily change which is exactly the winner (indeed it was December 2005 for a while). But anyway, the oil industry doesn't seem to quite be able to tip it past the 85mbpd mark (on a combined agency basis) for the time being.
For the last 22 months (September 2004 - July 2006) the arithmetic average for oil supplies was 84,25 Mb/d, and supplies have been running within 1 % of this average for these months.

Message 22955812



To: mistermj who wrote (3854)10/31/2006 12:44:21 PM
From: TimF  Respond to of 10087
 
The thing about such predictions is that if they keep getting pushed back and back, and then eventually one of them turns out to be correct, the predictor will try to claim "see I was right". All that has to happen is for peak oil to be reached in Campbell's lifetime.

sepwww.stanford.edu

peakoildebunked.blogspot.com

Edit - Of course some of the predictions made by others are extreme enough that this plan might not work.

peakoildebunked.blogspot.com