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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold and Silver Juniors, Mid-tiers and Producers -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: baystock who wrote (23946)	11/1/2006 6:36:30 PM
From: John McCarthy	Respond to of 78408

Hi baystock ... I just caught up with your post and am glad I did. I almost went into AUQ this morning for 30,000 shares but punted until later this week. Then I caught up with your post. Not looking for a CORRECT or RIGHT answer but just your best understanding ... are you saying in effect that if AUQ production for 2007 is 20,000 oz they [AUQ] only gets 50%? Please guess ..... or point me to a link if you have one that is convienent. dumb ramblings .... some of my cmm posts may make you barf, nonetheless, my heart (if not my head) is in the right place .... I still got my 125,000 shares ... and the only thing I fret about is San Juan's 2007 production .... and sure - on the face of it it sounds silly .... can't help it .... that said, I don't think you'll have to wait till 2008 for a ka_boom .... sigma is whole for 2007 I discount laq_Ican'tspellit ... altogether so don't care we should be able to hand-shovel 20k oz out of San Juan and 700 gold + Ponderosa is gonna make PK look like a genius ... finally - can't prove it and there ain't a hint of it in the air .... but by God she's gonna do a JV with somebody for the copper/moly on San Juan .... again, what I worry about is ... (1) do we get to keep the gold and (2) does that mean the cost of the gold is more or less free sorry for the rambling ... regards, John McCarthy

To: baystock who wrote (23946)	11/4/2006 4:26:48 PM
From: AuBug	Respond to of 78408

You're exactly right, my mistake which I think I admitted to earlier. Slide 6 of Aurogin's presentation has a column for total ounces and an AUQ.v equity ounces column. The El Sastre & El Arenal deposits are shown as 50% equity and the Lupita as 70%. For Bridge they can earn a 70% interest by completing a feasibility study and arranging production financing. Having some Guatemalan ownership probably helps grease the skids for getting permits. Slide 23 takes their equity fraction into account in estimating a share price of c$3.60 based on the value of 8 other producers. My amateurish approach was shown to be flawed by others posters here. Someone pointed out cash flow was a better metric than a P/E ratio but since they won't start selling gold for a few months that doesn't work either. Once we take out the May'06 highs of c$0.61 there won't be any more overhead resistance and I hope to Aurogin revalued at a much higher price.