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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: paul ross who wrote (3221)	10/31/2006 2:33:44 AM
From: wsw1	Respond to of 50497

6. The US Current Account is in a Deficit position and growing annually and shows no fundamental signs of reversing for a significant time. 7. An intact overall negative trend in the US Dollar exists from 2001 until present. It has all the characteristics of a bear market. We had a classic long-term top called a Head & Shoulders formation, which was subsequently confirmed by price and volume action. 8. The general commodity market showed in many ways during 2001-2002, both fundamentally and technically, that it was in a base formation from which higher prices have since resulted. 9. Trust in paper assets has waned, reflected by gold's rise against major international currencies during Fall 2005 and assuming an investment role internationally. The major corporate accounting scandals since the dot com bust and increased concern of a derivatives crisis have been causative items, which have since turned investors away from the absolute belief, in existence from 1980 until now, that paper assets were storehouses of value. 10. The overall momentum in the appreciation of the bond market from the early 1980s to 2001 has decelerated signficantly over the last 5 years, positive to a long-term bull market in gold. 11. Gold entered a runaway bull market once it closed and held over $547.

To: paul ross who wrote (3221)	10/31/2006 3:04:30 AM
From: maceng2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50497

It all depends how much faith there is in gold and pms in general vs the USD. The state of the USD tells me that the pm bull will resume at some stage. There are lots of swings and roundabouts, however more market manipulation means a bigger correction at the end of the day imo. PM's can be manipulated just like anything else of course. business.iafrica.com It's bad news for gold in 2007 Mon, 30 Oct 2006 Demand for gold is set to plunge in 2007 as investor demand drops and central banks stop buying gold. According to the latest Yellow Book, a bi-annual analysis of the gold market, from London based precious metals consultancy, Virtual Metals, demand will drop by 8.0 percent, or 313 tonnes. This is slightly more than what South African mines together yield annually, with SA, the largest producer of gold in the world, yielding some 300 tonnes a year. At the same time the consultancy also predicts a 159 tonne, or 4.0 percent, fall in supply next year as less scrap is recycled, central banks stop selling and less gold is sold forward. Surplus of gold These figures will result in a 219 tonne surplus for the year — the second successive year that this will have happened — after 2006's predicted over supply, according to Virtual Metals. The swing from two years of deficit to this year's 64 tonne surplus was largely due to a 179 tonne or 21 percent increase in scrap recycling in 2006, on higher gold prices coupled with a 674 tonne drop in jewellery demand also attributed to rapid price increases and volatility. Six months ago the consultancy had predicted a much larger surplus of 422 tonnes in 2006, but says a large part of the inflated forecast was due to much larger actual de-hedging, of 486 tonnes, compared to a predicted 280 tonnes. Eliminate the hedge book Earlier this year, Barrick Gold, now the world's largest producer, managed to eliminate the massive hedge book it inherited when it completed its purchase of Placer Dome earlier in the year. Demand for gold shares or ETFs has taken off since the product was launched a few years back and added a whole new form of demand for the yellow metal. This year a new peak in purchases in this category are expected at 209 tonnes, compared with the 33 tonnes of ETF demand in 2003. Next year ETF demand is, however, expected to decrease to 101 tonnes. "Although this could be affected by new launches that tend to attract heavy initial investment," Virtual Metals said. I-Net Bridge