Here's where we have to go...
Since last fall after talking to my brother about how much oil we use world wide per day he would hear the number and yet nothing would register in his face. So after some thinking I gave him an analogy of how much oil we use on a world basis and the rate we use it per day. I use over the road tanker trucks which haul between 7 to 9,000 gallons (I use 8,000 gal) and a 5 lane wide freeway.
So you're standing on a bridge over a 5 lane wide freeway with tanker trucks rolling by you at 60MPH. 5 trucks abreast and nose to tail in each lane as far as you can see in both directions. Roughly one set of 5 trucks going by per second. That is how much oil we use world wide every second of every minute of every hour, night and day, of each month during the year. And next year due to growth we need to add another lane for some more trucks.
84,000,000 mb/d
3,528,000,000 gal/d (42 gal / barrel)
147,000,000 gal/hr
2,450,000 gal/min
40,833 gal/sec
8,000 gal/truck
5.1 trucks per second
60 MPH = 88 feet/sec
He looked a little sick by the end but since he is my brother I had to push him further by asking if we should talk about coal or natural gas or any commodities. Shut up I think was his reply. I am always stunned by the shear volume and velocity that 6.5 billion of us on this planet use each and every day.
drumbeat.theoildrum.com
And here are the newest numbers showing where we ARE going..
Some number crunching in today's Oil Drum
How about this data, from EIA:
(Westtexas often pointed to 12/05 as the peak, but I pointed out to him that no month will ever be looked at as a peak even in hindsight, and nor will it be a 13-month avg; it will be a peak year. So, whether 7/05 stands or is revised, the interesting comparison at this point in time is 06 vs. 05.)
The first 7 months of 06, compared with the first 7 months of 05; 06 down 180k/d world, down 300k/d opec, (therefore up 120k/d non-opec). (BTW, US down 400k/d, or 5%, and before alaska began leaking.)
Speculation: opec will keep to its promises and cut 1.2mmb/d starting tomorrow, or an avg of 200k/d for the year, or 480k/d avg over the last 5 months.
2a. If opec does not cut, for 06 to exceed 05 the last 5 months will have to avg over 84.5mmb/d; over the last 12 months of available date, only 2 months managed such a high output.
2b. If opec does cut, production will have to avg 85mmb/d over the last 5 months to exceed 05, and only 1 month, the 'subject to revision' 7/06, has ever managed this.
We are all aware, as Freddy is wont to point out, that many diligent workers have concluded that a peak in 2010 looks likely, and some of these think 2012 or later. It is worth pointing out that none of these pundits have predicted less output in 06 than 05, which I think is likely even if opec does not cut and nearly certain if it does.
Many countries, not least sa/mexico, are showing lower output this year in the face of record prices - with the former clearly trying hard based on the 2.5x increased rig count -, so it is possible that even as substantial fields are placed into service we are seeing accelerating declines from the far larger number of mature fields. imo, mature regions are declining at a rate of at least 5%, the US rate, and as time goes on we will see this rate go ever higher as a higher proportion of the world's production is off shore and/or has been produced with horizontal wells, the latter a newer, 'high tech' practice as the oil approaches the gas cap, a la ghawar/cantarell.
The best point westtexas ever made was that professional oil men were universally surprised, even shocked, when texas was unable to increase production when all restrictions were lifted. Many will be surprised, even shocked, when peak becomes accepted, regardless of when it happens.
The early names are deffeyes, simmons and bakhtiari. We'll see just have to wait and see who gets the gold ring.
jkissing on Tuesday October 31, 2006 at 4:09 PM EST
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Darwinian on Tuesday October 31, 2006 at 5:12 PM EST
This months EIA data is out. It has August Crude + Condensate down by 179,000 barrels per day from July. All liquids for August however is up 29,000 barrels per day over July. I suppose they produced a lot of ethanol in August.
Yearly averages are for All Liquids are still down for 2006 107,000 barrels per day from 2005. Crude + Condensate is down even more. It is down an average of134,000 barrels per day in 2006 from 2005.
Ron Patterson
theoildrum.com |
