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Politics : Actual left/right wing discussion -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wharf Rat who wrote (3925)	11/1/2006 10:41:07 AM
From: TimF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10087

Running out of cheap oil might be a better definition than "not having enuf to meet our needs". The needs are determined by the economics of the situation. Lower supply equals higher price, and eventually equals lower demand, from higher efficiency, replacement sources, or in the worst case economic stagnation. Below the radar of even the most attentive newspaper readers, however, the first stirrings of peak oil reality are starting to trickle in. Not surprisingly, most of these reports come from the poorer parts of the world where $60 oil is simply too much for fragile economies. Here are a few of the items: (2005) • Last week the BBC reported that dozens were killed in fuel riots across Yemen when the government withdrew subsidies resulting in dramatic price increases. • All across Indonesia people were lining up at gas stations in response to developing fuel shortages. In one city, half the public transport was inoperable due to a lack of fuel. • In Zimbabwe, the government has moved to deregulate fuel procurement in the face of severe shortages: waits of hours for buses, gas lines that are blocks long, and a bread shortage. The black market price for gasoline is now ten times the official rate. • Nearly all the poorer countries make their electricity using diesel generators. Nicaragua, one of the poorest countries in Central America , recently started blacking out the poorer districts between 7 and 10 p.m. , the hours of peak usage. • Tanzania, with the highest gasoline taxes in East Africa and a chaotic oil marketing system, is seeing its plans for economic growth "suffocated" by high-priced oil. Tanzania also handles fuel for the landlocked states of Malawi , Rwanda , the Eastern Congo , Burundi and Uganda . • And closer to home, Maxjet put off plans to offer cheap flights from Baltimore to London until spring when the company hopes fuel prices will be cheaper. None of those are signs of peak oil. Most of them are signs that oil is more expensive than it used to be, but we already know that. Most of them are signs of more general problems with the economies and governments of third world countries. The Zimbabwe case is a sign of the harm done by price controls and subsidies. If you keep the price below the market clearing rate you get excess demand. Since gasoline and oil aren't limitless it still has to be rationed somehow. Since it isn't rationed by price it instead becomes rationed by queue, or by connections (who you know, or who you can bribe to get some).