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To: Bill Harmond who wrote (30728)11/2/2006 12:21:20 AM
From: Elroy  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 57684
 
3Q06 results were ahead of our expectations including
$137.9M in revenue, $35.6M in adjusted EBITDA, and $0.19 in
adjusted EPS. EPS benefited by $0.02 from a lower effective tax
rate. Our estimates were $133.6M, $34.9M, and $0.16.
The Media segment was the largest source of upside, driven
by strength in lead generation services. Media revenue grew 45%
Y/Y pro-forma. We expect the strength to continue into FY07 due
to international expansion and the launch the of new products such
as video advertising, search engine marketing, and Web development.
Affiliate Marketing and Technology segments returned to
growth after a setback in 2Q06, and the growth should be sustained
into FY07.
Guidance for the remainder of FY06 was raised from adjusted
EPS in the range of $0.57-0.64 to $0.65-0.67, ahead of our $0.61
estimate.
We are raising our estimates due primarily to higher revenue
growth. See page 3 for details.
Valuation remains attractive. Relative to peers and considering
the projected free cash flow growth of 31% in FY07 to $150M, or
$1.50 per share, we believe VCLK remains undervalued.
Summary
ValueClick’s 3Q06 results showed sequential growth across all segments
and no signs of inventory shortage or competitive pressure.
Revenue grew 37% Y/Y on a pro-forma basis. The company’s scale
2nd largest ad network in U.S. and a leading affiliate marketing
business) and broad base of online marketing services focused on
direct marketers with an ROI emphasis continue to differentiate the
company. International expansion and new product launches, along
with continued migration of ad budgets online, should generate 20%-
plus revenue growth in FY07. We believe VCLK remains undervalued.
Investment Conclusion