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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (753031)	11/2/2006 11:01:29 AM
From: pompsander	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 769670

From the votemaaster: On the House side, Zogby has 15 new polls, SurveyUSA has 5 and Research 2000 has 1. Now I have to admit that I made an error in judgment two months ago when I started this year's project. House polls were exceedingly rare then so I wrote the software to just use the most recent House poll (unlike the Senate, where the previous weeks' polls are averaged). It is a bit late now and I hate monkeying with the software so close to the election. I'll fix it for 2008. Sorry. The consequence is, the Zogby polls are slightly newer than the RT Strategies polls I had yesterday (click on "Previous report" above), so they effectively override yesterday's polls. electoral-vote.com One very surprising result is AZ-05 , where Harry Mitchell (D) has a tiny lead over incumbent J.D. Hayworth (R-AZ). This has to be worrying for the NRCC. Hayworth won by 22% in 2004 and now he is behind. If an incumbent in such a safe district is in trouble, what's going on in the 350 or so districts where there are no public polls? In IA-01 , which is an open seat previously held by Jim Nussle (R) who is running for governor and trailing, the Democrat, Bruce Braley has a 7% lead. In IL-06 , Tammy Duckworth (D), the double amputee Iraq veteran has a 14% lead over lawyer Peter Roskam. That is so much more than she has led before that this poll is probably an outlier. Both Ohio polls are noteworthy. Jean Schmidt (R-OH) is mostly famous for calling Rep. John Murtha (D-PA), who served in the Marine Corps for 38 years a coward (Schmidt never served). Murtha has returned the favor by campaigning heavily for Schmidt's opponent, Victoria Wulsin (D), a doctor who has spent years in Africa treating Aids patients. Murtha's help seems to be paying off as Wulsin now has a tiny lead. Up until now, Schmidt led. OH-18 is the seat formerly occupied by Bob Ney, who resignd from Congress in disgrace earlier this year. His hand-picked successor, Joy Padgett doesn't seem to be getting much traction as Democrat Zack Space leads her 53% to 33%. Yesterday's House summary, based largely on the RT Strategies polls, was predicting a Democratic pickup of 36 House seats. Today's summary, based largely on the slightly more recent Zogby polls, is predicting a Democratic pickup of 38 House seats. What should be making NRCC Chairman Tom Reynolds wet his pants (besides the fact that he may well lose his own race) is the fact that two different pollsters are both predicting a disaster for the GOP. It is hard to ascribe that to pollster bias or fishy methodology. The much predicted Democratic tidal wave is beginning to become visible. It is not inconceivable that the Democrats could win 40 Republican seats and not lose a single one of their own. A year ago anyone saying the Democrats could even win the 15 seats need to take control of the House would have been declared crazy. But as Yogi Berra once so famously pointed out: It's ain't over 'til its over. Polling is one thing. Voting is something else. The real key to this election wil be turnout. If Democrats and independents turn out in large numbers, we will get a result similar to the one predicted today. If they don't bother to vote, many endangered Republicans will survive.

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (753031)	11/2/2006 1:52:22 PM
From: DuckTapeSunroof	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 769670

Vietnam to Try Seven Political Dissidents on Terrorism Charges By VOA News 02 November 2006 voanews.com Vietnamese officials say seven political dissidents, including three naturalized U.S. citizens, will be tried on terrorism charges for plotting against the government. Officials said Thursday a Ho Chi Minh City court will hear the case against the defendants, who the government says used radio broadcasts to incite unrest. The seven were arrested last year and are accused of taking orders from a pro-democracy activist Hanoi considers a terrorist. The alleged ringleader, Nguyen Huu Chanh, is a Vietnamese-born citizen of the United States. Three other U.S. residents are part of the group to be tried. The continued detention of one of the accused - a Vietnamese-born resident of the U.S. state of Florida who was arrested 13 months ago - has blocked improved trade relations between Washington and Hanoi. Florida Senator Mel Martinez has stalled passage of a bill that would grant Vietnam permanent normal trade relations status because he says Hanoi should release the Florida resident. Vietnam has been working to strengthen its ties with the U.S. The countries struck a trade deal in May that paves the way for Vietnam to join the World Trade Organization next week. And U.S. President Bush is due to travel to Hanoi later this month to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. Some information for this report was provided by AP and Reuters.