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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: golfinvestor who wrote (56578)	11/2/2006 4:24:07 PM
From: kech	Respond to of 197563

ASP's dropped a bunch from $223 to $209

To: golfinvestor who wrote (56578)	11/3/2006 9:14:02 AM
From: Jim Mullens	Respond to of 197563

golf, re: QCOM Q4FY06 results / guidance , and >> “EPS growth FY07 7-10%. Conservative Jim?” That’s my guess!! Unfortunately, the ”market” focuses on short-term trivial aberrations, rather than important long-term macro issues. In order to “play that game”, it’s wise to under promise and over deliver as a miniscule miss due a trivial short-term aberration often inflicts severe punishment. As many have pointed out, the Q’s positive response to the various litigation issues is very encouraging to me. Disappointing though, was the handset guidance for this CY (which also drives MSM results) which significantly departs from historical trends. My extrapolations were based on historical trend analysis -- Quarterly H/S & MSM units did not compute as expected. The past 2 years Handsets averaged 30% QoQ growth for Q4 v Q3. Therefore OND H/S sales should increase to ~ 98 units, whereas the Q is only estimating 83 for OND (11% increase). Further, YoY sales averaged ~45% growth over the first 3 quarters, but are estimated at only 24% for Q4. CDMA must therefore be stalling, somewhat. Secondly, MSM sales usually accelerate in the JAS qtr to support Dec qtr h/s sales. That didn't happen this year... Gotta run for now, hopefully more time over the week-end to dig into the details. HANDSET Shipments History ===================== Total ====== JFM AMJ JAS OND CY TOT Q Guide 2004 38 40 40 52 170 QoQ% 30% . 2005 43 48 52 67 210 QoQ% 29% . 2006 66 70 75mpe 83mpe 294 294MP QoQ% 11% . YOY% 53% 44% 44% 24% 40% .