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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (3293)	11/3/2006 8:44:03 AM
From: loantech	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50474

Slider you are switching seats on the bus?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (3293)	11/3/2006 9:02:10 AM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50474

See you Sunday Night I was there last Sunday night and you stood me up. How do I know you'll be there this Sunday?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (3293)	11/3/2006 10:58:55 AM
From: Hank Madison	Respond to of 50474

OK. I'll give it a try. Looking out over the next 6 months, what are the top 7 drivers & catalysts for gold? What do YOU think? -- Is it the US Dollar? -- Under-reported Inflation? -- The US Deficits? -- Geopolitical unrest? -- The coming Elections? 2 -- The price of Oil? -- The price of the CRB/Commodities in general? -- The Bond Market? 3 -- The Stock Market? -- Plain and simple Speculation? 1 -- Global Liquidity? 7 -- US Monetary Policy? 5 -- Ben Bernanke himself? 4 -- Derivatives? 6 -- Angels and Magnets?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (3293)	11/3/2006 11:03:25 AM
From: nonrev	Respond to of 50474

Ok I’ll have a go just to see what comes from Slider (and Sunday night) 1. Geopolitical unrest – If a coming recession turns bad worldwide I suspect many 3rd world governments might try to dip their fingers into their local mining industries. Also a bit of fear factor may drive gold via political unrest. 2. Plain and simple Speculation – 6 month time window only for this guess. 3. The US Dollar - Maybe….. folks say the dollar is crap but if your crap but if your crap is the least stinky it will still be the crap of choice. 4. Under-reported Inflation … again maybe… but the inflation/deflation argument has no clear winner at this time. I think TJ said it best….. (paraphrasing): Inflation of everything you need (for now) and deflation of everything you own… Dang it Slider I can’t get 7 out of your list and even these 4 are questionable. nonrev

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (3293)	11/3/2006 11:11:10 AM
From: Cactus Jack	Respond to of 50474

What the heck, I'll contribute my uneducated guess: Looking out over the next 6 months, what are the top 7 drivers & catalysts for gold? What do YOU think? -- Is it the US Dollar? 6 -- Under-reported Inflation? 3 -- The US Deficits? -- Geopolitical unrest? -- The coming Elections? -- The price of Oil? -- The price of the CRB/Commodities in general? 2 -- The Bond Market? -- The Stock Market? -- Plain and simple Speculation? 7 -- Global Liquidity? 1 -- US Monetary Policy? 5 -- Ben Bernanke himself? -- Derivatives? 4 -- Angels and Magnets? jpg

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (3293)	11/3/2006 11:12:57 AM
From: jude_the_cat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50474

Drivers of the gold price: 1) The trend in the US$ relative to other major currencies. 2) Interest rate trends. 3) War mongering. 4) The decay of the global economic health. 5) Investment demand. 6) Perception that a currency system will function well or will not function well. 7) The Nikkei. Moggy

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (3293)	11/3/2006 11:49:48 AM
From: jim_p	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50474

-- Is it the US Dollar?3 -- Under-reported Inflation?1 -- The US Deficits?7 -- Geopolitical unrest? -- The coming Elections? -- The price of Oil? -- The price of the CRB/Commodities in general?6 -- The Bond Market? -- The Stock Market? -- Plain and simple Speculation?4 -- Global Liquidity?2 -- US Monetary Policy?5 -- Ben Bernanke himself? -- Derivatives? -- Angels and Magnets?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (3293)	11/3/2006 12:11:10 PM
From: harmony monkey	Respond to of 50474

1-- The price of Oil? 2-- Global Liquidity? 3-- US Monetary Policy? 4-- Is it the US Dollar? 5-- Geopolitical unrest? 6-- The US Deficits? 7-- The price of the CRB/Commodities in general? 8-- The Bond Market? 9-- The Stock Market? 10-- Under-reported Inflation? 11-- Plain and simple Speculation? 12-- Derivatives? 13-- Ben Bernanke himself? 14-- The coming Elections? 15-- Angels and Magnets?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (3293)	11/3/2006 12:16:13 PM
From: TH	Respond to of 50474

SOTB, "premature bugulation" ROTF! Where do you come up with this stuff. When I stop laughing I'll try to add something to all the reasons posted thus far. All I know is that if you are promising to serve cabernet sauvignon Sunday night, I don't want to find kool-aid in my cup. GT TH

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (3293)	11/3/2006 1:06:52 PM
From: Bart007	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50474

I would like to know the true picture of the money supply. We all have read how the money supply has increased constantly and substantially over the years since Greenspan took over. Many say this money found its way into the stock market and cause the stock bubble. Then after that investment area was cooked, the money went into housing and we are now reading what is happening there. In between all this, big money found its way into the oil/drilling sector and then precious metals. They have corrected. I have also been reading where all of the money that has been pumped into the money supply is quickly being sopped up, therefore the money supply is shrinking. I'd like to know if this is true. They say its hard to determine without M-3. Money supply money supply money supply ..... that is the question we need answered. What is its direction? What are the central banks doing in concert? And what are the big boys doing about it? The emotion is only the "afterthought", by the individual investor, of what the big money players are doing,IMO.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (3293)	11/3/2006 1:21:58 PM
From: Metacomet	Respond to of 50474

Don't consider myself a bug, but I do believe that a number of interrelated themes have a good chance of resulting in an increase in the attractiveness of other than fiat currency. From your list, I guess as of today I would rank the top 7 this way: 1. The US Deficits 2. US Monetary Policy 3. Under-reported Inflation(and unemployment) 4. Derivatives 5. The Bond Market 6. The US Dollar 7. Geopolitical unrest Number 7 being a wild card whose relative importance will fluctuate daily. Other wild cards, which you didn't list are the effects of both Peak Oil and Global Warning, the manifestations of either with the potential to drive all markets. Another potential disrupter is government sanctioned market manipulation, such as the plunge protection team or the Cheney energy group. Just a whole lot'o banana peels out there that, taken in total, argue for at least some exposure to non-fiat currency or investments.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (3293)	11/3/2006 7:26:39 PM
From: Fiscally Conservative	Respond to of 50474

"He says all he has to do is position himself as your advocate and friend by pushing your fear & frustration hot-buttons about fiat currency, the evils of government etc... and then fan the flames of greed by delivering you the big promise of redemption and riches." Hmmm... This sounds all too familiar. This is exactly how the US equity markets conduct business. On each and every trade there is a pom-pom waving cheerleading section represented by both parties. Spin it every way you want,there is always a crowd watching with baited breath. Dow to 13K in mid 2007 ? Got any Gold ?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (3293)	11/4/2006 2:42:58 AM
From: dumpyork49ers	Respond to of 50474

My answers to top 7 catalysts of Gold movement <<FIVE>> Is it the US Dollar? -- Under-reported Inflation? -- The US Deficits? <<THREE>> Geopolitical unrest? <<FOUR>> The coming Elections? -- The price of Oil? -- The price of the CRB/Commodities in general? -- The Bond Market? <<SEVEN>> The Stock Market? <<TWO>> Plain and simple Speculation? <<SIX>> Global Liquidity? -- US Monetary Policy? -- Ben Bernanke himself? -- Derivatives? <<ONE>> Angels and Magnets?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (3293)	11/4/2006 10:13:13 PM
From: Fun-da-Mental#1	Respond to of 50474

Okay, I accept the "7 factors" challenge. Price of gold in US$ = value of gold / value of US$ Therefore it depends on supply and demand for both gold and US$, so 4 things in total, and each of those can be broken down further: GOLD SUPPLY = new mine supply + sales by those holding gold GOLD DEMAND = safe haven buying + speculation + use of physical gold US$ SUPPLY = new US govt. supply + sales by those holding US$ US$ DEMAND = US GNP growth + foreign purchase of US$ ______________________________________________________________ And what's the situation for each of these? NEW MINE SUPPLY - bullish Production is low and not growing despite high gold price. This has been a factor in the bull market so far. GOLD SALES - bullish Not much sales from rich countries, and developing countries are stockpiling rather than selling. SAFE HAVEN BUYING - bullish? Lots of investors are holding some gold "just in case". With the economy slowing, I see this trend continuing. SPECULATION - Could go either way This is make or break time for the multi year gold bull. If gold moves up now (which it is starting to do) the trend is intact and the party continues. If not, it's all over. USE OF PHYSICAL GOLD - neutral Yawn. NEW SUPPLY OF US$ - bearish Due to new policy of the Fed as discussed by Slider. US$ SALES - neutral or bullish Not much happening now, but if China hits a real downturn they may have to start spending their US$ reserve, which would be bullish for gold. Also if US recession gets serious foreigners (and some Americans) will start divesting. US GNP GROWTH - bullish Bearish outlook for economy is bullish for gold FOREIGN PURCHASE OF US$ - ? Depends how US economy does relative to rest of world. I don't know about this. ________________________________________________________ So finally: THE LIST: Key factors for the next 6 months: 1) STOCK MARKET If this continues up, Bernanke wins, speculators move on, and gold bugs die. If it's down, then safe haven buying kicks off more outrageous gold speculation. 2) SPECULATION This will make the move very extreme, one way or the other. 3) US MONETARY POLICY This is the main bearish factor for gold, and recently it's been in control. Can there really be a soft landing? 4) GLOBAL LIQUIDITY Economic slowdown raises some risk of a liquidity crunch, which would be hugely bullish for gold. I'm going to stop there. The other factors are all important, but to me these 4 are the biggies. On balance I am bullish on gold, but not sure enough to make more than a small bet. Fun-da-Mental

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (3293)	11/7/2006 7:44:56 AM
From: Bart007	Respond to of 50474

Where does "CONFIDENCE" fit into all this as a catalyst? I don't see it below. Why BOX everyone in? ...outside the box is the mantra. :-) From: SliderOnTheBlack 11/3/2006 8:37:35 AM 3 Recommendations Read Replies (14) of 3443 "STOP INTELLECTUAL INCEST!" Is this just another premature bugulation or, the beginning of a new, major rally for gold? Do you want to move beyond emotional gibberish, beyond rhetoric and actually engage in an intelligent, fact based discussion on gold? I'll try one more time... Looking out over the next 6 months, what are the top 7 drivers & catalysts for gold? What do YOU think? -- Is it the US Dollar? -- Under-reported Inflation? -- The US Deficits? -- Geopolitical unrest? -- The coming Elections? -- The price of Oil? -- The price of the CRB/Commodities in general? -- The Bond Market? -- The Stock Market? -- Plain and simple Speculation? -- Global Liquidity? -- US Monetary Policy? -- Ben Bernanke himself? -- Derivatives? -- Angels and Magnets? Remember, list them in order of importance and influence. A friend of mine writes for one of the top pro-gold stock newsletters. He says the 'bugs don't want to work, don't want to think... He says all he has to do is position himself as your advocate and friend by pushing your fear & frustration hot-buttons about fiat currency, the evils of government etc... and then fan the flames of greed by delivering you the big promise of redemption and riches... He say's you don't want to think... you only want smoke (and lots of it) blown up your arse... Here's your chance to prove him wrong. Can 'bugs actually think for themselves? ...we shall see. Sunday Night Smackdown: "The Top 7 Drivers of Gold." ...the beginning of a major move to new highs, or just another bounce within the trading range? See you Sunday Night, SliderOnTheBlack