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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (73579)	11/3/2006 9:47:30 AM
From: redfrecknj	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Do you remember the Chicago Fed report? This was the excuse at that time: "...the high prices being driven by fundamentals." "First, it appears that the housing boom has not been driven by unusually loose monetary policy. This is not to say the monetary policy has not been unusually loose, but that to the extent it has been loose, this is not what has been driving spending on housing. Second, the current levels of spending on new housing are largely explained by technology-driven wealth creation over the previous decade. Third, changes in the demographic, income, educational, and regional structure of the population account for about one-half of the increase in homeownership. That is, without any other developments, the homeownership rate is likely to have gone up anyway, but not by as much as it has done. The last finding is that substitution away from rental housing made possible by developments in the mortgage market, such as subprime lending, could account for a significant fraction of the increase in residential investment and homeownership. We view our findings as supporting the view that the current housing boom may be a temporary transition toward an era with higher homeownership rates in which spending is temporarily higher than historical norms but will eventually return to such norms. While we have so far mostly avoided discussing housing prices, our findings do suggest that to the extent that house prices have grown considerably in recent years, this is not due to unusually excessive speculation in the housing market, such as would occur in a bubble. Instead, our findings point toward the high prices being driven by fundamentals." chicagofed.org

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (73579)	11/3/2006 11:34:02 AM
From: Gemlaoshi	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Fed just covering their ass for a truly monstrous policy error IMHO. CG, Fat chance it was an honest "policy error". The data show that inflation was already accelerating by the beginning of 2004, but the Fed delayed until the fall of 04 before beginning to raise rates in earnest. The key here is that 2004 was an election year with a tight presidential race, and Greenspan was not about to seriously raise rates before the election. As a result, the Fed was behind the curve and allowed the housing boom to get out of hand.