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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kumar who wrote (207726)	11/5/2006 8:23:13 AM
From: Wharf Rat	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

For acute shortages, we have the SPR. I think it has an 80 day supply. It was established to deal with events like this, or like we saw after Katrina. (It's not meant for bringing down prices for political purposes). BTW, China will take Venezuela's oil, partially to fill their own SPR. I presume, when you say Alaska and GOM, you mean new developments. These won't do a thing in the short term. Right now, Jack in da Gulf is talking 400KBPD in 2013. That doesn't do a thing if Venezuela stops selling to us tomorrow. That's based on an optimistic scenario that doesn't include a shortage of drilling rigs; bad assumption. Rigs are scare; one of the points Simmons always makes. ANWAR is even more problematic, long term. On top of everything else, you will not only get people like me going up there and chaining ourselves to rigs, but severe global warming related effects; too warm to work. You need permafroast... Message 22948629 they are down from 200 working days in '70 to about 75 now. But, I digress. Why do I laugh? I find it amusing that people think the GOM will save us. Jack; big bad Jack. Jack is projected to give us 400KBPD in '13, if everything works right. Message 22815631 Message 22945589 Sounds real good, except Saudi Arabia's production fell by 500K in the first 6 months of the year, 600K-1Mbpd since Simmons wrote his book. GOM? Mexico's Cantarell crashing... (According to the WSJ article earlier this year, the remaining 800' oil column at Cantarell is thinning at the rate of about 300' per year. The math is pretty simple on this one.) Update on mexican crude production and exports for september: Total production 3,257,579 ; down 114,042 from jan; -3.38% Total exports 1,678,440 ; down 373,214 from jan; -18.19% Exports to US 1,329,656 ; down 250,504 from jan; -15.85% Cantarell's decline trend seems solid now and no new development or exploration wells are being drilled in that field as of recent months. % change jan-sept has been 12.17%; a decline of 233,682bd average, going from 1,920,114 to 1,686,432 Message 22978114 CANTARELL, The Second Largest Oil Field in the World Is Dying Message 22654546 Most recent APSO meeting...it' ain't pretty; about 5 articles starting... Message 22974857 Summary; new stuff coming on line isn't gonna replace the depletion.