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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold and Silver Juniors, Mid-tiers and Producers -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: loantech who wrote (24491)	11/6/2006 4:08:52 PM
From: TH	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78412

Slan, I will let you know when I buy in the miners. TA is very important, and that is a factor here. I should state that I use TA for playing the trends, but the reason I like bullion and miners is for entirely FA reasons. My favorite plays are those with a strong FA foundation and short and medium term positive TA indicators. I also use some voodoo that is more difficult to explain (and I don't want you to laugh at me too much). There are a few things that have held me back the past few weeks. 1. I have not loved the action in the gold miners. The move through 318 was not impressive and looked tired before we hit 320. 2. I am concerned that Paulson and Ben are planning dollar support before they MUST cut rates in 07. This is sketchy at best, but with all the noise from the Dow rally and the election monkey business, I feel that the risk to missing some upside is much more attractive than loading positions that might eat into capital. I"m crazy about protecting capital, and that costs me upside from time to time. 3. I am expecting a Democrat LANDSLIDE in the house. The Senate is too difficult for me to predict. I think this market sells off on a Democrat house win. What I do not know is what the miners will do, and if all that liquidity dries up quick, will it come out of the miners too? I do not know that answer to that, so like a deer, I wait for the headlights to pass. As you know. I'm very short homebuilders and some banks. Those are doing ok, even with 800 points to the upside on the Dow. That tells me those positions are going to do very, very well if we get a sell-off. So that is it in a nutshell. Last, as you know, I do not sell bullion (except for a very small amount of 5% or so in the $720 range). So I am very bullish long term on the prospects for POG and of course the miners too. It is just timing of when to go long again that is an open question. Good Trading TH