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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KLP who wrote (185879)	11/9/2006 3:20:23 PM
From: skinowski	Respond to of 793858

Agree with you. Indeed, bio and chemical weapons also have a "history-stopping" potential. Last year I struggled through a book by Michael Alexander called "Investing in a secular bear market". There was almost nothing in the book about "investing" - but plenty of discussion of various business and generational cycles. Not an easy read, but, I think, interesting. Below I'll post an excerpt and a link to his article at Safehaven - gives a bit of taste. ...................... According to the generational model, the fiscally conservative policies and financial self restraint of the 1950's is a natural consequence of the generational peer-personalities of the adult generations: cautious, risk-adverse Nomads in elderhood, team-playing, disciplined Heroes in mid-life, and compliant Artists in rising adulthood. By the late 1960's "self-expression" and the rise of the individualistic ethic (coming with the arrival of a new generation of Prophets) encouraged deficit spending, tax revolts and speculation. Strauss and Howe call such periods Awakenings. They are times when "people stop believing that social progress requires social discipline" and develop "a high tolerance for risk-prone lifestyles". People disdain the prosperity and security of a High, though covertly they are taken for granted. The development of the Awakening mirrored a political shift from conservative to liberal as well as an erosion in financial rectitude. Taxes were cut in the early 1960's and the decision to finance the Vietnam war through deficit-spending rather than increased taxes contributed to an inflationary environment that would make speculation more attractive in the 1970's. War stimulus was probably responsible for extension the 1960's expansion beyond 1966, when it should have ended according to SMECT. Kondratiev spring ended in 1966, just two years after the beginning of the Awakening, as indicated by the beginning of a secular bear market. Yet economic good times continued until 1973. ....etc... safehaven.com Part I safehaven.com