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Politics : Rat's Nest - Chronicles of Collapse -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wharf Rat who wrote (5044)	11/11/2006 9:23:47 AM
From: Wharf Rat	Respond to of 24210

One long (very, very good) article on exports, one short article on Russian exports westexas on Saturday November 11, 2006 at 9:12 AM EST energybulletin.net Published on 10 Nov 2006 by Energy Bulletin. Archived on 10 Nov 2006. An assessment of world oil exports by Luís de Sousa Excerpt: Four different periods can be identified: 2006 - 2010 : slow decline below 2%/year; 2011 - 2013 : first acceleration to a decline rate above 3.5%/year; 2014 - 2017 : steady decline between 3.5%/year and 4%/year; 2018 - 2020 : new acceleration up 4.5%/year. Once the amount oil available for export becomes lower than the amount required by the importing countries costs start to rise, forcing an abnormal wealth transfer from buyers to sellers. This newly acquired wealth will improve affluence in exporting countries, which in turn drives up internal consumption (better automobiles, better and farther away from center homes, more goods imports and transportation, etc). This feedback loop will perpetuate itself until some event or constraint tackles consumption growth in the exporters' side, or until the importers collapse from lack of new wealth to transfer. The former is the most likely scenario. akm.ru Exports of Russian oil totaled 170.479 mln tons, which is 2.4% lower than in the same period of last year - 174.551 mln tons. theoildrum.com