To: loantech who wrote (25281 ) 11/13/2006 6:50:33 PM From: TrueScouse Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 78412 Tom: I opened a position in Polymet (POM) today -- after following your posts on this for some time... I hadn't realised that their NorthMet project was so huge, nor that they were so far along with it, nor that it was in the USA. I've skimmed through the summary of the feasibility study recently completed by Bateman, and to me the key figures are included in the following paragraphs...e Operating Costs: During the first five years of full-scale production, cash costs of production (excluding amortization of capital) on a co-product basis (allocating costs to each metal according to its contribution to revenue) and using Low Case metal price assumptions (copper - $1.50/lb, nickel - $6.50/lb, palladium - $225/oz, platinum - $900/oz, and gold - $450) are projected at $0.81/lb for copper, $2.84/lb for nickel, and $113, $477, and $239 per ounce respectively for palladium, platinum, and gold. Alternatively, using the by-product method whereby revenues from other metals are offset against costs of a primary metal, the five-year average cash cost of copper would be $0.6/lb or, if NorthMet were viewed as a nickel mine, nickel costs would be minus $1.46/lb. Looked at another way, the operating margin is expected to be in excess of 40% on Low Case assumptions, and more than 50% on the Base Case. Robust Economics: The mine model does not take into account the anticipated results of additional drilling. After state and federal taxes, the Base Case rate of return is 26.7% and the present value of the future cash flow discounted at 7.5% per annum is $595.4 million. During the first five years of full-scale operation, annual EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxation, Depreciation, and Amortization, or operating cash flow) is projected to average $175.3 million. Pretty robust economics!! As I noted with Agnico this morning, I love these plays where the high price of the byproducts leads to negative costs, which is the case when NorthMet is looked at as a nickel mine (Ni being the most valuable component at current prices). From the FS, I calculate that the in-ground value of the metals (M&I only) at current prices is about US$19 billion. Add a bit for inferred and convert to CDN and you get about CDN $23B. So a rough estimate might be that POM should be worth 10% of current in-ground value = CDN $2.3B. With 130M shares out (FD), that's about $17 CDN per share. So IMO it's a great deal at $3.50. :^) I hope I did the math correctly and didn't drop a decimal somewhere. I'd be happier if others would check my assumptions and/or comment on the above. If confirmed, I'll buy some more. <g> Thanks for the heads up Tom. Best regards, Howy