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Politics : Rat's Nest - Chronicles of Collapse -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wharf Rat who wrote (5075)	11/14/2006 9:36:22 AM
From: Wharf Rat	Respond to of 24214

Surviving the Future Peak oil piques interest at Boston conference By MAUREEN MORGAN There were beards and dreadlocks, jeans and business suits, academics, environmentalists, entrepreneurs and others concerned about what the future will look like at the end of cheap oil. The Second Annual 2006 Boston World Oil Conference was the draw, attracting 500 people, including college students and senior citizens worried about the future of their grandchildren. The purpose was to address the matter of “peak oil,” so named by M. King Hubbert. In 1956, through the now famous “Hubbert’s Bell Curve,” he illustrated the point at which extraction from an oil reserve reaches peak production and no amount of drilling will increase output. After peaking, the cost of producing a barrel becomes increasingly difficult and expensive. At some time in the future oil producers may be required to use the energy produced by a barrel of oil to extract and process a barrel of oil, obviously not a good business plan. Hubbert accurately predicted the peaking of U.S. oil reserves in 1971. Many conference attendees were not newcomers to the subject of peak oil and some were bloggers on the numerous Web sites that cover the on-going drama as the world confronts the end of the oil age, “theoildrum.com” being a particularly popular one. Survival strategies A number of states and municipalities have initiated their own strategies for energy conservation but the lack of leadership at the federal level is an ongoing drag on the nation’s ability to prepare for the end of cheap oil. To date there is no comprehensive plan for moving into more efficient energy usage and the development of alternative fuels. It therefore behooves businesses, organizations and individuals to figure out their own strategies. Meanwhile, recent plummeting gas prices, cheered by many, are actually a major negative for those businesses attempting to develop affordable alternative energy sources. Venture capitol needs stability to invest. Volatility is what killed the drive to conservation in the early 1980s when gas prices again plummeted. To stabilize oil price volatility there is growing interest among policy-makers in a gas tax in order to level out the erratic price fluctuations that will inevitably occur as consumers respond to higher prices and move to alternative energy options. Obviously, initiating a gas tax will require more political courage than we have seen lately in our governing bodies. However, a gas tax can provide the resources for developing more energy alternatives, a coherent transit system and other survival strategies. Preparing for the post-oil age will be stunningly expensive and there is a certain logic in using oil itself to help pay for the transition. Otherwise, we will continue to send mountains of money to many countries that don’t have our best interests at heart. Political realities The exact point at which world oil reserves will peak is not clear, though all indications suggest it will be much sooner than later. Many researchers say we have already reached it. Oil production information at the conference indicated that the peak is upon us. Mexico’s largest oil reserve appears to have peaked, Russia has exceeded Saudi Arabia’s production and many other producers are experiencing difficulty meeting production goals. The political reality of world energy is even more dire. For starters, three-quarters of the world’s remaining oil reserves are owned by Muslim countries, currently not our best friends. Energy wars have become a part of American life but will become far more deadly. Further complicating the picture are the rising energy demands of China and India, which are determined to go down the same disastrous energy path the U.S. has pursued. A few speakers at the conference approached the topic in a more philosophical tone. Randy Udall, son of former U.S. Representative Morris Udall, described humanity as climbing up the heat ladder, using ever more energy as we rise. According to Udall, we are acting like gods in our seeming control of the universe and the time has come to return to Earth. As serious mountain climbers know, the way down is far more treacherous than the way up. Alternative sources The most talked about energy option, ethanol, based on corn, did not fair well due to the fact that a barrel of oil is required to produce a barrel of ethanol. Further, the excessive use of farmland at a time when more locally grown crops will be required, suggests serious hurdles for corn ethanol as a solution for anything. The powerful farm lobby has been instrumental in pushing ethanol as a substitute for foreign oil. Bio-fuels could be a better option. A major theme of the conference was determining the most efficient alternative energy source to augment declining oil resources. What is the return on investment? In other words, how much energy does it take to make energy? There was no consensus on which alternative would be the most effective but all agreed conservation is by far the best strategy upfront. Most speakers agreed that a severe change in human behavior will be mandatory for survival. For instance, eliminating aggressive driving would save 25 percent of transportation fuel. Further, an extra 1 billion gallons of gasoline per year are used moving the extra poundage now carried by many Americans. Conservation strategies can take many forms. We must explore all of them and with all possible speed to allow us time to develop alternative energy options. Maureen Morgan, a transit advocate, is on the board of Federated Conservationists of Westchester. Reach her at mmmorgan10@optonline.net. NOTE: This is the first article in a series on the subject of “Surviving the Future,” which will explore a wide range of subjects to assist businesses in adapting to a new energy age. fairfieldcbj.com