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Politics : Rat's Nest - Chronicles of Collapse -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wharf Rat who wrote (5091)	11/16/2006 11:33:20 AM
From: Wharf Rat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24212

Re: Net Petroleum Exports Note that we started this year with the two largest oil exporters, Saudi Arabia and Russia, showing flat to rising exports. We are ending this year with the two largest oil exporters--as I predicted in January, 2006--showing falling exports. And the Total US Petroleum import numbers since the start of the fourth quarter suggest that we are going to have to bid the price of oil and of refined products up if we want to keep consuming at our current rate. westexas on Thursday November 16, 2006 at 10:45 AM EST Re: CERA's Comments on Hubbert's Prediction The primary purpose of the HL method is to estimate the area of a production rate versus time graph, which is URR, or Qt. The method is much less accurate in predicting the actual production rate at a given point in time. Note that CERA did not comment on Hubbert's prediction for cumulative Lower 48 production. Also note that the farther away one is from the 50% of Qt mark, the less accurate the method is. From my 7/7/06 post on the HL Method (on post-50% of Qt Models for the Lower 48 and Russia): The best way that I could think of to test the post-peak validity of the HL technique was the excercise that Khebab did with the Lower 48 data. Post-1970 cumulative Lower 48 production, through 2004, was 99% of what the HL model predicted that it would be--using only 1970 and earlier production data to generate a predicted production profile. The same exercise for Russia showed that post-1984 cumulative Russian production was 95% of what the HL model predicted, using only production data through 1984 to generate the predicted production profile. In other words, the HL method accurately predicted the post-50% of Qt cumulative production for both the Lower 48 and Russia. The world is now right at the 50% of Qt mark for both crude + condensate and crude + condensate + NGL's. And the most recent EIA data show that both measures of oil production, as predicted by the HL method, are flat to lower relative to late 2005. Only Total Liquids, which counts everything, including ethanol, is up over late 2005. westexas on Thursday November 16, 2006 at 9:30 AM EST theoildrum.com