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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: steve harris who wrote (208788)11/19/2006 6:14:02 PM
From: Wharf Rat  Respond to of 281500
 
I'm guessing you mean that he says that is how much time to respond to GW. It's also the middle scenario for the Hirsch report.

"Many scientists are now warning that we are moving closer to several "tipping points" that could - within as little as 10 years - make it impossible for us to avoid irretrievable damage to the planet's habitability for human civilization."

Message 22841108

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Economic Impacts of Liquid Fuel Mitigation Options (PDF)
Bezdek, Wendling and HIRSCH; MISI and SAIC for The National Energy Technology Laboratory
hilltoplancers.org

Three scenarios
Waiting until world oil production peaks before taking crash program action leaves the world with a significant liquid fuel deficit for more than two decades.
Initiating a mitigation crash program 10 years before world oil peaking helps considerably but still leaves a liquid fuels shortfall roughly a decade after the time that oil would have peaked.
Initiating a mitigation crash program 20 years before peaking appears to offer the possibility of avoiding a world liquid fuels shortfall for the forecast period.
en.wikipedia.org