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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rarebird who wrote (11767)	11/21/2006 11:04:22 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 219938

i dunno, except to not that i am uncomfortable going long or short the japanese equity / currency market, given that it is so heavily manipulated by officialdom, especially near year-end (March 31st) time, the currency should have risen long ago, and yet it doesn't, but does give an occasional kick in the behind to those who are short the equity market should have risen long ago, or fallen long long ago, and it repeatedly hurt those who were long and then those who were short, then long, then short i do like japanese food :0)

To: Rarebird who wrote (11767)	11/21/2006 1:28:10 PM
From: energyplay	Respond to of 219938

Rarebird - That chart doesn't really point to long of short, until it starts moving out of a range. I agree with TJ, Japan may be too complicated to game right now. Also, you have the currncy issue - short the N225 from a US Dollar base, it drops 6%, but the Yen moves up 8%, then you have lost 2%.... Now the fund may be able to hedge away much of the currency risk - but that costs money. So after that, what return is there ? Japan's stock market works best when it is at one extreme, then goes further in that direction, and then reverses. Then you can get on ride the trend for a while. When it is in the middle range, the N225 just wanders around.... For foreign exposure, consider being long Brazil. With central banks all over the world printing money, I have a hard time thinking what stocks I would like to short. Buying hard assets essential shorts currencies, which are being over printed. Stocks of operating companies represent the hard assets the company has, and future earnning power based on more future money in circulation, but many costs incurred in the past and fixed at a lower level. I don't even want to short US housing stocks at this point - risk / reward is not great.