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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E_K_S who wrote (25335)	11/24/2006 12:23:21 AM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78505

Yes, EKS, I continue to hold ARA. Yes, the p/e, p/bk are reasonable. Imo, the stock is up because profits/margins are up. Now IF, IF the company can sustain this as they have for the past few years, then imo, the stock is a buy now still, to maybe $100/sh. (or more), based on a model I'm using. I have no idea though IF business will continue this good or as well as in recent past years. And I don't understand the business or the environment in which the company operates. So for me, I hold only a few shares. Ah geez though. The conclusion here for me is gonna be like the GOOG thing: for most people, as a standard Graham value, ARA's likely a pass; and maybe even for a GAARP stock too. (Or it's iffy). I myself won't buy more ARA now (unless I see continued good news), and I'm not able to defend or justify my valuation of $100 to anyone with any factual support. My intent is to hold what I have to see what happens. Of course, all jmo, and as you know, I've been wrong many, many times.

To: E_K_S who wrote (25335)	12/14/2006 11:23:59 AM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78505

Started new positions in Aracruz Celulose S.A. (ARA)and Emerson Radio Corp. (MSN. Added more shares to my Biotech company AVI Biopharma Inc. (AVII). ARA is my value play and a hedge against a falling dollar. I just have a small starter position as I did not want the stock to get away. I would like to add more shares below $55. I bought a small starter position in MSN as mentioned by Spekulatius. The stock seems undervalued with a low book value, reasonable long term debt when compared to available cash and a low P/S ratio which could move much higher if new sales contracts are secured. Finally there were some large insider purchases at current prices so it appears that they are positive for the company next year. AVII is no value stock but one of many inexpensive (not profitable) biotech stocks w/ several interesting vaccines under development. This could be a total loss or multi bagger. I also have hedged some of my recent gains in C, HD, WM, SVU, AHM & ORCL and expect to have stock called away in December and January. This will allow me to establish larger than normal cash reserves to buy more compelling values when investors "Sell in May and go away". EKS