PV...
Nick, first, I agree with your earlier point that betting against technology can be a bad bet. It is interesting to me that this is the first time I have seen CERA mention "technology" reducing consumption on the demand side. That struck me as interesting, and proves that it is coming on the radar, and fast. They are almost certainly thinking in terms of the "grid based" transportation possibility which is moving now in much the same way that computers and the internet did in the 1980's, with costs dropping, processes improving, and "confluence" of ideas and systems. This could take off like a cheetah at any time, but on the other side, one technical bottleneck can hold up progress for months, it's almost impossible to read. The breakthrough areas are batteries, and renewable possibilities for the grid, most notably PV solar. Below is a research bit that I did for my own group, so it is no effort for me just to reprint it here. There is some good research here you don't see everyday, even if it a bit "uncollected", take it for what it's worth, it's free!
The concern over raw materials seems to revolve mainly around indium in the newer generation of thin film solar panals. These are somewhat described below, and are the new CIS and CIGS type panels. The confluence seems to be that these are rapidly surpassing the older silicone panels in both efficiency and reduced cost of construction:
aip.org
azom.com
nrel.gov
www1.eere.energy.gov
The rare mineral seems to be Indium:
On Wikipedia, we get the scoop on indium, which is not exactly a common element, and in 2005 the price is given at $900 per kilogram, "unusually high" (it has been given as $188 per kilogram in 2000, by the USGS, so the price appreciation has exceeded even oil).
Other useful stats here:
education.jlab.org
Now, the bigger picture, per Wiki,
"he Earth is estimated to contain about 0.1 ppm of indium which means it is about as abundant as silver, although indium is in fact nearly three times more expensive by weight. Canada is a leading producer of indium. The TeckCominco refinery in Trail, BC, is the largest single source, with production of 32,500 kg in 2005, 41,800 kg in 2004 and 36,100 kg in 2003. Worldwide production is typically over 300 tonnes per year, but demand has risen rapidly with the increased popularity of LCD computer monitors and televisions.
The only sourcebook I have seen (but cannot afford!) on Indium:
amazon.com 14/104-6756629-3293514?v=glance&s=books&n=507846
The largest supplier of indium, founded in 1934, based, in all places, in Utica NY:
indium.com
The largest supplier comments on supply concerns:
indium.com
Brief aside: This is an absolutely fascinating little company to me, nearly silent and invisible, with only 300 or so employees, it is rapidly becoming a very important firm. Indium itself is extracted mainly from zinc mining as a byproduct, but the price has often been so low and unstable, most zinc miners didn't even mess with extracting it.
USGS data on indium:
minerals.usgs.gov
minerals.usgs.gov
a very concise and fascinating little page here:
minerals.usgs.gov
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Technology improvements in crystal growth
afrlhorizons.com
The technology is moving VERY FAST. Indium is mainly used in flat screen panel displays for computers, TV's and handheld devices, but apparently the volume of indium per foot of screen is very small, with one source claiming that even a doubling of the price added only one dollar to even a large screen display or TV. If the volume needed is this small in PV panels, then it is not a major problem. Recycling the indium is easy given it's softness, and it is claimed that 85% is in fact recycled. More could be if the price stays high, and much more could be claimed from zinc and other mining operations. We just don't know how many millions of square feet of solar panel may be called for soon, thus, the volume of what has been an obscure little metal up to now could take off.
JUST HOW BIG CAN THIS BE?
cnn.com
physorg.com
I just want to close by putting this in some perspective. The advances in thin film solar has left everyone somewhat disoriented in the speed with which they have occured, and we are still at the front end of this. The fact that true giants like Honda and Siemens have joined the chase is setting the stage for a true worldwide CIS/CIGS panal race. With American Nanotech firms in the fray, the industry has much in common with the computer chip industry and the rabid competition which broke loose there, and we are aware of the staggering cost cutting that proved possible in the 1980's and 1990's there. The question is, was many of the cost cutting and efficiency gains discovered there, and so will not be so easily achieved in the solar panel business? Only time will tell. It is obvious that in some very large markets, especially the sunny and heavily populated sunbelt, this could begin to have major impacts and soon. The remarks by CERA, the discomforted remarks by OPEC spokemen somewhat disparaging the too fast adaption of "green energy", and the concern by ExxonMobil and others that people might take this "peak" talk seriously shows that for the first time, alternative energy is posing at least a percieved future threat.
What has to be of concern is the possibility that the cat is out of the bag, that is, even if oil prices drop, the technology is moving so fast, that alt energy tech prices will drop even faster and efficiencies will continue to climb. People are starting to look at the alternatives as competitive on much more than just efficiency grounds. Reviewers who have driven the Toyota and Lexus hybrids sing praise on the smoothness, quietness, all around comfort, and efficiency of the cars, and are starting to think about the possibility of the plug hybrid as a car you would refuel less often than you used to have to get an oil change in the old days. Solar panels are promising a backup in case of storms, distributed clean power AND cost possibly matching that of fossil fuels. We may actually be at the edge of the long promised revolution.
Right now, the "rare" minerals needed to keep the revolution going seem not to be in such short supply as to halt the advances. In fact, the shortage of silicone often touted is not a shortage of raw material, but instead a shortage of factory and facilities, encouraging both alternative material development (CIS and CIGS panals) and added fabrication facilities. This is the sign of an industry on the march. Economics of scale are moving in the right direction.
Likewise, the battery developments brought on by the cordless power tool market and the handheld devices market are speeding the advance of advanced batteries.
If we want to think about where we could be in a few years, think back to this:
Computer and internet industry, 1989, compared to the IT industry, the internet, handhelds, Blackberrys, wireless net industry of 1999....it can happen that fast.
Roger Conner known to you as ThatsItImout
theoildrum.com |
