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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (74554)	11/28/2006 11:07:43 AM
From: Paul Kern	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Merrill Lynch Launches New Collateralized Mortgage Obligation Index Tuesday November 28, 9:56 am ET Will there be a linked ETF? Options? How about a stockcharts symbol so we can track this animal?

To: ild who wrote (74554)	11/28/2006 11:19:24 AM
From: ild	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

@market behavior -- trotsky, 11:14:01 11/28/06 Tue review today's economic headlines: "The Commerce Department report that orders for durable goods fell 8.3 percent in October -- the sharpest drop in more than six years -- further stoked concerns that the economy is slowing at too fast a pace. " minus 8,3%? "the report from the National Association of Realtors showing a slight uptick in home sales lent some support to the market although it also revealed that the median selling price fell by the steepest level on record last month." steepest price fall on record? "investors seemed little moved by an unexpected drop in the consumer confidence. The Conference Board, a private research group, reported that the figure for November fell to 102.9 in November from a revised reading of 105.1 in October. Analysts had been expecting a reading of 106." unexpected decline? we have once again proof that there is no discernible correlation between the fundamental news of the day and the market's reaction to it - since right after all of this came out, the market began to rally. this is because markets are primarily moved by psychology - fundamentals will forever play second fiddle to it. Hambone@leaders&laggards -- trotsky, 09:03:24 11/28/06 Tue yesterday sure was a strange day in pm land, with some issues up big and others down just as big. since you've mentioned previously that you're into MRB now, i wouldn't worry too much about its pullback. seems likely to me that it wants to retest the break-out, which will work off overbought conditions. the fact remains that considering the recent El Morro resource update published by Xstrata the same back-of-the-enevelope calculation that valued MRB at $6-7 previously, now values it at $8-9. also, imo the fact that Xstrata is willing to spend 10's of millions to keep its joint venture interest intact is a strong sign that the property is considered economically viable (read, viable not only at the current high metal prices). lastly, the legal challenges to MRB's explosives permit at Cerro seem to have run their course. most recently, MRB has been able to defeat the respective motions in the courts twice in a row, and it's presumably becoming a bit costly for the complainants to continue. note that this was simply a thinly veiled blackmail attempt by absentee eijidos - they certainly hoped to get something out of it. i doubt their capacity for losing court cases is unlimited. however - the delay created by the blasting permit issue means that MRB will likely seek financing before the mining start-up at Cerro. iow, there's some danger that they'll go for an equity placement in the next three months or so. @ANO -- trotsky, 08:38:59 11/28/06 Tue a good example of yesterday's dog becoming tomorrow's star performer: Hambone@ski -- trotsky, 08:31:58 11/28/06 Tue you said: "And I hate to say it (I really don't) but that was just about the time trotsky was defending SKI as a wonderful technician and I strongly disagreed." that actually misrepresents a bit what i said. i only noted that all of SKI's major calls (regarding major trend reversals) since early 2004 had been good ones. i furthermore added that his system seems to have problems with trading ranges ( and we've been in a trading range recently). the reason why i mentioned it is that someone suggested using him as a contrary indicator, and while everybody here heartily agreed, they sure hadn't really considered his major calls (all of them good in the past 3 years). note btw. that Ski has now turned bullish - i.e. his system has given a bullish signal. if anyone thinks he's a good contrary indicator, now would be a good time to sell. just to summarize again: i NEVER said 'ski is a wonderful technician'. i only said that those who want to use him as a contrary indicator should consider that he had been a 'hot hand' for nearly 3 years running. that might of course change again - we'll see. Norwester@speaking of cheaper and cheaper imports -- trotsky, 07:07:28 11/28/06 Tue your example proves nicely what a huge advantage for consumers (relatively) free trade is. by buying your power tools at such incredibly low prices, you now have money left over that you can save, invest, or use for other consumption, whereas in the 'good old times' you'd simply have payed a lot more for your tools. this is the 'unseen' effect of free trade - it frees up resources for better use elsewhere. this simple concept somehow seems to elude a surprising number of people, but it can't be emphasized enough. economic policy should ALWAYS aim to benefit the consumer, instead of aiming to protect inefficient production. contrary to popular myth, China isn't 'damaging the West' by selling it goods at astonishingly low prices. rather, it is doing us a favor. @glow-worm Litvinenko -- trotsky, 06:56:05 11/28/06 Tue it seems unlikely that he killed himself, but the yarn spun by most Western media seems even more unlikely (the 'Putin did it' story sans evidence). it would be incredibly stupid for Putin to off a conspiracy wingnut like Litvinenko (whom absolutely nodoby knew about BEFORE he got himself killed) in a foreign country by means of smuggled-in Polonium 210 of all things. whatever one thinks of Putin character-wise, 'stupid' isn't one of his traits. 'cui bono'? - so far the only clique profiting from this sad death is the B'man's 'Oligarchs-on-the-lam' organization as far as i can tell. there's no more need to pay Litvinenko's rent, and they can freely engage in Putin-bashing at the top of their lungs. thmann@'coup d'etat in Iraq' -- trotsky, 06:45:44 11/28/06 Tue i just came across the speculations you posted about a possible coup d'etat by the former Sunni military elite in Iraq with a nod/wink from the US to 'restore order and defang the Shi'ite militias'. this isn't the first time the subject has been broached as it were. it came up as soon as Bush displayed a certain degree of displeasure with Al-Maliki's actions and the speed with which he failed to implement previous plans (you know how it is...when Bush says 'heckuva job Maliki', and 'we won't impose no timetables', it's a good bet the guy's time has come). well, the short answer to these speculations is 'forget it'. a coup d'etat requires as a sine qua non that there IS an 'etat' that can be taken over. however, there is no State in Iraq, only a 'state', namely a state of total chaos. it has become ungovernable, and it matters not one whit who becomes the sock puppet du jour in the Green Zone. iow., if this option is actually being considered, it only shows the degree of desperation that has set in by now. it's the kind of thing that comes up when the realization that 'things are so bad they probably can't get much worse' begins to dawn. in any case, it's just as harebrained as previous 'plans'. deep down, even the densest politicians in the US and the UK administrations must know by now that the only alternative left is 'get out asap'. the problem is that nobody has the balls to admit it publicly and actually do something about it - it smacks too much of that perennial orphan 'defeat'. they hope to be able to dawdle long enough to push the problem into the lap of their successors. nevermind that the equal opportunity slaughter will in the meantime not only continue as before, but likely get even worse (it's a well established trend by now after all). what a bloody mess.