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Technology Stocks : The *NEW* Frank Coluccio Technology Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lhn5 who wrote (18057)	11/28/2006 8:07:23 PM
From: Frank A. Coluccio	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 46821

Hi Lhn5, You stated: "...However, as far as switching carriers goes...if I want to move my family plan it would cost me 4 x 175 in termination fees to do so. I would have to be HIGHLY motivated to change...and of course all the contracts expire at different times." Let's see. You quoted 4 x $175? I've been told by friends (indeed, I've seen it in my own household once or twice, but for extraordinary reasons) and have read in print where some children's individual text-messaging bills routinely range into the hundreds of dollars per month. Some approach the $700 bogie you're looking at, and I dare say that some may even run higher, until they get bagged. Opening up the interface and comingling traffic with WiFi through internetworking arrangemens could result in lower fares, and some relief might result, but it's anybody's guess as to how much. What dollar amount would serve your need if you projected over the next year or two? How much pain could you withstand up front in the way of termination penalties in order to see relief down the road, and what would that maximum time horizon need to be? There's more to this than the mere opening of interfaces. I recently came across the article below. It spells out many of the traps and gotchas that cause real life parents to occasionally wish they'd never seen a cellphone and stuck to coin operated- and forty-pound desktop phones with rotary dials on them, instead: --- Saving money on kids' mobile phone bills Debra Cleveland November 8, 2006 theage.com.au. --- re: "with increased penetration of WIFI and the gradually increasing availability of dual cell and VOIP phones, how will the carriers grow their businesses as the toll portions of portable phone use gradually decreases? Can they make it up somehow on the broadband end?" We're seeing this now, only we're seeing it happen on the wirelines side first, which is a part of the "broadband end" that you suggest they are "making it up on." Ironically, the other part of "broadband" is the very 3G wireless service that you're referring to, in the first place! It's easy, if not tempting, to posit that the long path of cannibalization will ultimately lead service provider pricing to approach zero. However, it seems that, with every move in that direction, they have a means of countering, as evidenced by the frills and gimmicks they make available in the article I cited above (URL). For the time being revenue erosion is taking place on the wireline voice (POTS) side. To offset this, telcos are banking on triple plays to pull them out of the swamp at some point. But this, too, is extremely dicey. Witness the penetration rates already achieved by the cablecos in the areas that the telcos are looking at for salvation. And the cablecos aren't standing still, either. If the telcos cannot make their breakeven projections by 2008 or 2009 and begin showing profits by then, then I suspect that they will either look to their wireless properties to subsidize the wireline side, or, more likely, given shareholder interests that are involved, they may decide to sell off whatever it is that isn't working for them at that time, as they have been known to do. And then of course, it's entirely possible that they'll flourish and thrive with the right twists of fate. The former of those potential outcomes represents a juncture where something highly radical can potentially take place, should they decide to abandon their 3-plays, even if only hypothetically at this time, and that would be some form of taking or receivership of wireline properties under a form of management that I could only guess about at this time. But for certain, if they tank and show no immediate signs of revival by some point in time, they're going to become history. I'd look for similar types of dymamics to affect wireless with time, too. Can it come down to the service providers shedding their tonnage of back office and "services" areas in order to lighten their capex and opex nuts, allowing them, thus, to compete more leanly on the merits of their wire --or wireless, as the case may be-- capabilities (sans services), alone? That too is often discussed in some circles, as is the opposite outcome, as well. If it appears that I'm waffling over this, consider, there is a still another election to go before it's time for the telcos to make their nut. FAC ------

To: Lhn5 who wrote (18057)	11/28/2006 9:43:00 PM
From: Frank A. Coluccio	Respond to of 46821

It appears I broke the link to the mobile phone bill story, above. The link below works. I've also copied it for convenience below: "Saving money on kids' mobile phone bills" Debra Cleveland November 8, 2006 tinyurl.com Mobile phones are a double-edged sword when it comes to children. Most parents give kids a phone because they want a link to home. But for many families, the new phone becomes a source of conflict because of big bills - and it opens the door to a plethora of irritating scams and hidden costs. Unwanted ring tone subscriptions, SMS scams and one-off $6 charges for TV competitions are just some of the things that catch children and unwary parents. More than 50,000 complaints were made about mobiles in 2005-2006, the telecommunications industry ombudsman has revealed, with the biggest growth in grievances with premium-rate SMS services - up 231 per cent on the previous year. So, whether you're contemplating a mobile for a child or you're already tearing your hair out at a teenager's high bills, read on - there are steps you can take to bring the costs under control. First-time phones For younger children, some handsets also act as a tracking device or are modified to allow access only to certain phone numbers. While in many cases mum's or dad's old phone will do, these tailored handsets can be useful if more parental control is needed. For kids under 10, have a look at ikids, says Kim Wingerei, managing director of online advisory service MobileSelect. "It can only call preset numbers, it can receive SMSs and track where your child is. If your child is outside a particular perimeter you define, such as school or the park, it sends you a warning." As part of a plan, the phone costs $299 and is built into a 24-month contract at $28 a month (with 30 minutes of calls included). The new TicTalk from Telstra is another option. Designed for kids aged six to 12, it allows calls only to preset numbers and accepts text messages only from those numbers. Without a plan, the phone costs $259. On a 24-month plan (monthly $15, or $20 with 40 minutes of calls and $30 with 60 minutes of calls), it's included. Paying for calls The advantage of a prepaid phone, Wingerei says, is the control: once the money runs out, no more calls. "The downside is call rates are higher, so you end up paying more for each call," he says. "And it still doesn't stop the user from downloading ring tones and getting sucked into services they may not be aware they're paying for." Call rates can be $1.02 for the first minute. Post-paid phones require more discipline because there's no limit. This applies even to capped plans because the call charges are often higher, making it easy to reach the cap. Contracts are often cheaper - 42 cents for the first minute, says Michelle Collins of phone broker www.cheapphonedeals.com.au - but you're locked in for the term of the deal. A cost-saving on post-paid phones is a "red alert" when the monthly spend gets to a certain limit. Wingerei cites Think Mobile, where its Control option allows you to set a monthly limit of $30 for your child. When that's reached a text is sent to your phone and outgoing calls on the child's mobile are barred until the following month. It can still receive calls. Think's call rates are low - 36 cents for the first minute - but there is a $12 monthly access fee. Collins says this "red alert" is possible on any phone - just call the provider and ask them to set it up for you. Ring tone rip-offs As this writer found out, ring tones or "wallpaper" (pictures on the mobile) can eat up prepaid credit in no time just by your child texting a number in a children's magazine. Sure, the small print says you have to be the bill payer and over a certain age, but that's usually overlooked both by children and providers. In this case a refund of $9 was forthcoming, but it required persistence and detective work finding the provider's number. When your children first get a phone, warn them not to download ring tones or to budget for how much they cost. It's also easy for them to unwittingly commit to a weekly subscription at up to $3.95 a pop. Again from personal experience, this writer noticed the credit on a Telstra prepaid phone was down almost $28 and found seven weekly debits had been made. Telstra refunded the money and says this is now official policy as long as the automatic downloads are not knowingly requested. Music downloads are going to be the next big seller, Wingerei says. Rather than banning them outright, he suggests exploring a subscription service for $10 a month rather than being hit with a surprise $50 bill. Premium numbers Treat 1300 and 1800 numbers with caution, Collins advises. Calls from a mobile cost an average 70 cents a minute with a 25-cent flag fall. Calls for TV competitions - often on 1900 numbers - cost an average $3.50. And when teenagers send text messages to these numbers they receive a reply - for which they pay anything up to $3. Calls to 1900 numbers for astrological predictions can cost $5 a minute. Check what each text or call is costing your kids (or you). Another way is to disable calls or text messages to these numbers via your service provider. Tricks of the trade If your child's phone has access to the internet, talk about downloads and how much they can cost. Ask your provider if you're not sure of the details. Collins cites teenagers going online with their handsets and downloading interactive soccer games at $8 a pop. If it gets out of hand, you can ask the provider to disable the internet service. Avoid unnecessary messages and missed calls by asking your provider to extend the time your child's phone rings - usually it lasts about 15 seconds, but you can ask for this to be extended for longer. Bar international calls and, if your child goes overseas with a phone, do the same with global roaming. Otherwise you'll be footing the bill - callers will be charged the local rate, but you'll be charged for the cost of the call from Australia to wherever they are. ------

To: Lhn5 who wrote (18057)	11/29/2006 6:15:34 PM
From: Frank A. Coluccio	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 46821

Lhn5, the article below is from Feb 2006, but the points made by CEO Roberts in it remain highly plausible ones, IMO, and consistent with some of the points I set out to list for you earlier. --- Comcast CEO Berates Verizon's FiOS Anthony Crupi \| FEBRUARY 08, 2006 72.14.205.104 Comcast chairman and CEO Brian Roberts said Wednesday that Wall Street's myopic regard for the Baby Bells and their plans to offer video service is unduly wearing down the cable giant's share price. Speaking at the McGraw-Hill media summit in New York, Roberts said that the focus on Verizon in particular is unfortunate, given that FiOS, the telco's fiber-optic video service, "does not show any economic promise." The economies of scale just aren't there for Verizon, said Roberts, who pointed out that "in the last 10 years, it has not gotten cheaper to string fiber optic [cable] to the home." Ultimately, Roberts predicted that Verizon would wind up "spending gobs of money to be the fourth video provider in the market." hat a company with little or no experience in the business would vie to enter the video market today behind the incumbents also strikes Roberts as a curiosity, especially since the telcos have such a cash cow in wireless. "Why take all that good, hard-earned money and put it back in video, where 30 cents of every dollar goes right back into programming?" Roberts asked. The Comcast chief said that Wall Street's infatuation with Verizon is particularly counterintuitive, given that Comcast and other top-flight MSOs have been reaping the rewards of a completed digital plant build-out for years now. Roberts estimated that "70 to 80 percent of our CAPEX is success-based," given that the completed upgrade allows Comcast to offer a wealth of services, including interactive video, telephony and high-speed Internet. And yet, even though Comcast was able to add 2.5 million new revenue generating units in 2005--a number it hopes to boost to 3.5 million this year--Wall Street has still beat up on the company's stock. Comcast's share price fell nearly 20 percent last year and is presently trading near its 52-week low. Meanwhile, Comcast will continue to rustle up the 60 percent of its subscriber base that have not shown a desire to switch to digital. Roberts said the MSO is getting closer to offering analog customers an unobtrusive, sub-$100 digital converter that will allow even the lowest-end subs the ability to access video-on-demand programming. The company is also getting ready to introduce a $99 triple-play bundle of voice, video and data in its New England system. On the content side, Roberts said that Comcast will continue to build up its networks, which include E! Entertainment Television, Style Network, the Golf Channel and OLN. When asked about how the latter network will go forward with its plan to reinvent itself as a sports property after losing out on the eight-game National Football League package, Roberts said OLN would still look for other league deals "that make sense." A pact with Major League Baseball may be in the offing, although Roberts sidestepped speculation about an acquisition, saying, "We haven't had any baseball in the past. It's possible, but no comment." Nor did Roberts confirm that a standalone channel devoted to MGM movies might be on the horizon. In 2004, Comcast was also a partner in the Sony-lead consortium that bought MGM; thus far, hundreds of the studio's library titles have appeared on the MSO's movies-on-demand service. Before leaving the McGraw-Hill building, Roberts heaped praise on Time Warner CEO Richard Parsons, calling the embattled media chief "a terrific, quality person" and asserting that any "well-run company that can push synergies ... has a reason to be together." That comment can be seen as a reaction to activist Time Warner shareholder Carl Icahn, who yesterday presented a plan to break-up the company into four separate entities, including one for Time Warner Cable. Roberts singled out the performance of the cable unit, saying it "has done an outstanding job." ------