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Politics : President George W. Bush -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: DuckTapeSunroof who wrote (98)11/28/2006 5:44:39 PM
From: DuckTapeSunroof  Respond to of 125
 
Hezbollah Said to Help Shiite Army in Iraq

November 28, 2006
By MICHAEL R. GORDON and DEXTER FILKINS
nytimes.com

WASHINGTON, Nov. 27 — A senior American intelligence official said Monday that the Iranian-backed group Hezbollah had been training members of the Mahdi Army, the Iraqi Shiite militia led by Moktada al-Sadr.

The official said that 1,000 to 2,000 fighters from the Mahdi Army and other Shiite militias had been trained by Hezbollah in Lebanon. A small number of Hezbollah operatives have also visited Iraq to help with training, the official said.

Iran has facilitated the link between Hezbollah and the Shiite militias in Iraq, the official said. Syrian officials have also cooperated, though there is debate about whether it has the blessing of the senior leaders in Syria.

The intelligence official spoke on condition of anonymity under rules set by his agency, and discussed Iran’s role in response to questions from a reporter.

The interview occurred at a time of intense debate over whether the United States should enlist Iran’s help in stabilizing Iraq. The Iraq Study Group, directed by James A. Baker III, a former Republican secretary of state, and Lee H. Hamilton, a former Democratic lawmaker, is expected to call for direct talks with Tehran.

The claim about Hezbollah’s role in training Shiite militias could strengthen the hand of those in the Bush administration who oppose a major new diplomatic involvement with Iran.

The new American account is consistent with a claim made in Iraq this summer by a mid-level Mahdi commander, who said his militia had sent 300 fighters to Lebanon, ostensibly to fight alongside Hezbollah. “They are the best-trained fighters in the Mahdi Army,” he said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The specific assertions about Iran’s role went beyond those made publicly by senior American officials, though Gen. Michael V. Hayden, the director of the Central Intelligence Agency, did tell Congress this month that “the Iranian hand is stoking violence” in Iraq.

The American intelligence on Hezbollah was based on human sources, electronic means and interviews with detainees captured in Iraq.

American officials say the Iranians have also provided direct support to Shiite militias in Iraq, including explosives and trigger devices for roadside bombs, and training for several thousand fighters, mostly in Iran. The training is carried out by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and the Ministry of Intelligence and Security, they say.

In Congressional testimony this month, General Hayden said he was initially skeptical of reports of Iran’s role but changed his mind after reviewing intelligence reports.

“I’ll admit personally,” he said at one point in the hearing, “that I have come late to this conclusion, but I have all the zeal of a convert as to the ill effect that the Iranians are having on the situation in Iraq.”

Lt. Gen. Michael D. Maples, the director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, offered a similar assessment in his testimony.

Neither General Hayden nor General Maples described Hezbollah’s role during the hearing.

In the interview on Monday, the senior intelligence official was asked for further details about the purported Iranian role.

“They have been a link to Lebanese Hezbollah and have helped facilitate Hezbollah training inside of Iraq, but more importantly Jaish al-Mahdi members going to Lebanon,” the official said, describing Iran’s role and using the Arabic name for the Mahdi Army.

The official said the Hezbollah training had been conducted with the knowledge of Mr. Sadr, the most influential Shiite cleric.

While Iran wants a stable Iraq, the official said, it sees an advantage in “managed instability in the near term” to bog down the American military and defeat the Bush administration’s objectives in the region.

“There seems to have been a strategic decision taken sometime over late winter or early spring by Damascus, Tehran, along with their partners in Lebanese Hezbollah, to provide more support to Sadr to increase pressure on the U.S.,” the American intelligence official said.

Some Middle East experts were skeptical about the assessment of Hezbollah’s training role.

“That sound to me a little bit strained,” said Flynt Leverett, a senior fellow at the New America Foundation and a Middle East expert formerly on the National Security Council staff. “I have a hard time thinking it is a really significant piece of what we are seeing play out on the ground with the various Shiite militia forces.”

But other specialists found the assessment plausible. “I think it is plausible because Hezbollah is the best in the business, and it enhances their position with Iran, Syria and Iraq,” said Judith Kipper, of the Council on Foreign Relations.

The Mahdi Army and other militia fighters traveled to Lebanon in groups of 15 and 20 and some were present during the fighting between Hezbollah and Israel this summer, though there was no indication they had taken part in the fighting, the American intelligence official said.

Asked what the militia members had learned, the official replied, “Weapons, bomb-making, intelligence, assassinations, the gambit of skill sets.”

There is intelligence that indicates that Iran shipped machine tools to Lebanon that could be used to make “shaped charges,” sophisticated explosive devices designed to penetrate armor, American officials have said. But it is not known how the equipment was in fact used.

The officials said that because the Iraqi militia members went through Syrian territory, at least some Syrian officials were complicit. There are also reports of meetings between Imad Mugniyah, a senior Hezbollah member; Ghassem Soleimani of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards; and Syrian representatives to discuss ways of stepping up the pressure on the United States in Iraq.

The mid-level Mahdi commander interviewed this summer said the group sent to Lebanon was called the Ali al-Hadi Brigade, named for one of two imams buried at the Askariya Mosque in Samarra. The bombing of that shrine in February unleashed the fury of Shiite militias and accelerated sectarian violence.

According to the Mahdi commander, the brigade was organized and dispatched by a senior Mahdi officer known as Abu Mujtaba. It went by bus to Syria in July, and was then led across the border into Lebanon, he said. He said the fighters were from Diwaniya and Basra, as well as from the Shiite neighborhoods of Shoala and Sadr City in Baghdad.

“They travel as normal people from Iraq to Syria,” one of the militiamen said. “Once they get to Syria, fighters in Syria take them in.”

Among American officials, concern over the purported Iranian, Syrian or Hezbollah role grew recently when an advanced antitank weapon, an RPG-29, was used against an American M-1 tank in Iraq.

“The first time we saw it was not in Iraq,” Gen. John P. Abizaid, the head of the United States Central Command, told reporters in September. “We saw it in Lebanon. So to me, No. 1, it indicates an Iranian connection.”

American intelligence officials said the source of the weapon was still unclear.

General Abizaid also said it was hard to pin down some details of relationships between armed factions in the Middle East, adding: “There are clearly links between Hezbollah training people in Iran to operate in Lebanon and also training people in Iran that are Shia splinter groups that could operate against us in Iraq These linkages exist, but it is very, very hard to pin down with precision.”

Mark Mazzetti contributed reporting from Washington, and Hosham Hussein from Baghdad.

Copyright 2006 The New York Times Company



To: DuckTapeSunroof who wrote (98)11/28/2006 6:04:26 PM
From: DuckTapeSunroof  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 125
 
A war of words over Iraq

The White House rejects the term 'civil war,' but analysts say the debate is largely academic

By Julie Hirschfeld Davis
Sun reporter
November 28, 2006
baltimoresun.com

WASHINGTON -- With sectarian violence raging in Iraq and President Bush grasping for options, the question of whether Iraqis are locked in a civil war has taken on new urgency.

The term is fraught with emotional overtones and policy implications, which is why it sparks lively arguments and strong pushback from the White House. Bush vehemently rejects the idea that Iraq is engaged in a civil war, while a growing chorus of scholars and strategists says that is exactly what the staggering civilian death toll and factional strife amount to.

The national news media are grappling with the issue as well, as evidenced by yesterday's announcement from NBC News that, after much consideration, it had decided to use the phrase.

In a nod to how sensitive the topic has become, the network's Matt Lauer noted, "We didn't just wake up on a Monday morning and say, 'Let's call this a civil war.' This took careful deliberation."

Bush has said he would not allow U.S. troops to be caught "in the crossfire between rival factions." Conceding that a civil war has broken out in Iraq could undermine that promise and increase pressure for a quick withdrawal of American forces.

At the same time, labeling the conflict as a civil war could deepen public distaste for keeping U.S. troops in Iraq, replacing Bush's stated goals -- annihilating terrorism and planting the seeds of Middle Eastern democracy -- with a referee's role that would be harder to justify, analysts said.

The White House continued to resist the notion that Iraq had descended into civil war. Stephen J. Hadley, the national security adviser, sidestepped a question on whether the label applies, saying that Iraqis do not believe there is a civil war.

"It is what it is. There is a high level of sectarian violence. It is a challenge for the Iraqis. It's a challenge for us," Hadley told reporters aboard Air Force One en route with the president to a NATO conference in Europe.

Tony Snow, the White House spokesman, who also talked with reporters aboard Bush's plane, said what's happening in Iraq does not fit the definition of a civil war.

"What you do have is sectarian violence that seems to be less aimed at gaining full control over an area than expressing differences and also trying to destabilize a democracy, which is different than a civil war, where two sides are clashing for territory and supremacy," Snow said.

Still, most scholars agree that civil war is defined as a situation in which clearly defined groups from the same country battle each other for political influence. The conflict must claim significant casualties, many say at least 1,000 lives. Sunni and Shiite violence, including brutal revenge killings, has escalated steadily in Iraq this year, and Iraq's health minister estimated this month that up to 150,000 civilians had been killed in the war.

Some of the Bush administration's strongest allies now openly use the term civil war to describe what is going on in Iraq.

Ayad Allawi, the former prime minister of Iraq, said last spring that with 50 to 60 Iraqis dying each day, "If this is not civil war, then God knows what civil war is." Nouri al-Maliki, the current prime minister, has said there will "never be a civil war in Iraq."

Top administration and military officials, including Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld and Gen. John P. Abizaid, the commander of U.S. forces in Iraq, have said that Iraq could be on the brink of civil war, though Bush has never accepted that characterization. Instead, the president says it is up to U.S. forces to prevent Iraq from devolving into such a conflict.

King Abdullah II of Jordan, who is to meet with Bush tomorrow in Amman to discuss the war, warned over the weekend that given the conflict in Iraq, tensions in Lebanon and the Israeli-Palestinian crisis, "We're juggling with the strong potential of three civil wars in the region." He told ABC that strong steps had to be taken to avert a "tremendous crisis."

Anthony Cordesman, a national security analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said there is no question that the situation on the ground in Iraq constitutes civil war. Arguing over whether that's true is "a remarkably silly semantic debate" that yields no solutions for the steadily increasing violence, he added.

"If you accept civil war, it is seen as marking yet another step toward what is perceived as defeat politically," Cordesman said of the Bush administration. "You have people using the term because they're dramatizing the problems, and you have the White House making the argument because it wants to stay the course."

Bush's pledge not to get U.S. troops caught in a crossfire is moot, Cordesman said. "They are already in Baghdad, trying to separate ethnic factions that are shooting at them," he said.

Bush is going to "convoluted lengths" to avoid the term civil war because he wants to avoid appearing to take sides in a raging internal battle, Peter W. Galbraith wrote in the most recent edition of New Republic magazine.

"But saying it isn't civil war doesn't make it so," said Galbraith, a former U.S. diplomat and Bush critic who has proposed partitioning Iraq. "Training and equipping Iraq's security forces as the United States is doing only produces more lethal combatants in the country's internecine conflict."

The potency of the term civil war comes from the fact that "it's not what we signed up for," said David Rothkopf of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "We went in there to replace a despotic government with a democratic government. We said we were there to get rid of terrorists. Well, which side are the terrorists?

"Now we find ourselves being a referee in a civil war. Neither side is us. It means that the premise for our national involvement and policies has been challenged and compromised," Rothkopf said.

Describing the situation in Iraq as a civil war would further reduce support for the war among the American people, who, research shows, will not tolerate U.S. casualties from intervention in that kind of conflict, analysts said.

"As bad as public support for the war is, it's likely to get worse if they see this as a civil war. It's a battle that the administration has largely lost already," said Christopher F. Gelpi, a Duke University researcher on war and public opinion. "It will raise the question in their minds, 'Well then, if this is a civil war, should we withdraw?'"

The term civil war is often used by critics of U.S. involvement to stoke public opposition, Gelpi added.

The Democratic Party pounced on NBC's announcement, accusing Bush of trying to "spin" the Iraq war by "splitting hairs."

"If you're lying dead on the street in Baghdad, I don't imagine it makes much difference" what the conflict is called, Rothkopf said, adding that the debate is "taking us away from" looking at the key moral and strategic questions about how the United States should handle it.

julie.davis@baltsun.com