As of two years ago, when this article was written, "when Bush took office, the government was forecast to run $5.6 trillion in surpluses over the next 10 years. OMB Watch now forecasts $7.8 trillion of deficits for the next 10 years-" hope you're non-discerning bugbrain tells you that you're happy.
Evaluating Bush's Economic Performance: A Field Guide for the Perplexed
by Robert Freeman
commondreams.org
Forbes Magazine's online edition performed a valuable public service in July when it ran a story comparing the economic performance of the ten postwar presidents. Forbes is the right-leaning business publication that goes by the tagline, "Capitalist Tool." Its publisher, Steve Forbes, is a big hitter in Republican circles and ran as a Republican candidate for president in 1996 and 2000.
The magazine proposed six different metrics by which a president's economic performance should be judged. They are: GDP growth, real disposable personal income, employment, unemployment, inflation, and deficit reduction. All are mainstream benchmarks with their data easily accessible to any serious inquirer.
It is a measure of Forbes' integrity that it let the chips fall where they may: the top three performing presidents - Clinton, Johnson, and Kennedy - were all Democrats while the bottom three performers - Nixon, Eisenhower, and Bush the Elder - were all Republicans. The middle of the pack was a mixed bag of all the rest: Reagan; Ford; Carter; and Truman.
Interestingly, however, Forbes did not include the current occupant of the White House in the comparison. In fairness, George W. Bush's first term is not yet over, though the fact of a short duration did not stop Forbes from including Gerald R. Ford or John F. Kennedy in its evaluation. Both served less than full terms.
One wonders if the reason Forbes did not include Bush is that Bush would have come out rather poorly for the comparison. The numbers are readily available. Surely they ran them.
But with an election looming, it is worthwhile looking at Bush's record and comparing it with that of the last president, Bill Clinton. The reason for choosing Clinton is that he is not only the only Democratic president of the last twenty years, many of Clinton's economic advisers are now working with John Kerry. If Clinton's economic philosophy might inform Kerry's policies, the comparison would be very useful.
The final measure Forbes uses is deficit reduction. Here, the gap in performance is simply off the charts. Bush the Elder's last deficit was $292 billion, the largest in history to date. Clinton took office in 1993 and immediately reversed Bush's supply side policies, raising taxes on the highest bracket tax payers. That policy allowed Clinton to work down the deficit to $107 billion by 1996. In cumulative terms, Clinton's first four years saw deficit reduction of $183 billion.
Clinton would go on in his second term to not only eliminate deficits but deliver the largest surpluses in history. In 2000, the surplus reached $236 billion. Bush quickly reversed course and turned Clinton's record surpluses into record deficits. For 2004, the deficit has soared to $422 billion. In cumulative terms, by reversing Clinton's surpluses, Bush has delivered $1.2 trillion of additional red ink.
And the red ink goes on for as far as the eye can see. When Bush took office, the government was forecast to run $5.6 trillion in surpluses over the next 10 years. OMB Watch now forecasts $7.8 trillion of deficits for the next 10 years-a literally incomprehensible reversal of $13.4 trillion. This will prove an immense boon to Bush's wealthy backers who will be the ones loaning the money and at higher rates of interest. But it will gravely cripple future economic growth.
The reason is that deficits must eventually be paid for. These bills will fall to future generations and increasingly onto the working and middle classes. But since paying those bills must come out of future incomes, they must compete with other demands on those incomes. Once basic consumption is paid for, that typically means competing with investment-the basis for sustained economic growth.
Bush's deficits, by putting inescapable claims on future incomes, have already reduced the possible levels of future investment and therefore future economic growth. Coming generations will suffer reduced living standards-perhaps dramatically so-to pay for Bush's astronomical deficits. Clinton 5; Bush 0.
A last, additional measure of economic performance is poverty. Forbes did not include this measure, possibly because accurate data on poverty levels were not kept before the 1960s. Comparisons between all of the postwar presidents are therefore impossible. But they have been kept since then, making a Clinton/Bush comparison not only possible but desirable.
When Clinton entered office, the official poverty rate stood at 15.1%. He reduced it to 13.8% three and a half years later. When George W. Bush took office, poverty had fallen still further, to 11.3%. But it has risen steadily under Bush, to 13.8% in June of this year. Clinton reduced poverty. Bush raised it. Clinton 6; Bush 0.
Confronted with such data, Republicans routinely cavil that the comparison is stacked to favor Democrats. But it can hardly be said of Forbes that it is a left-leaning publication. Quite the contrary. Forbes' framework is persuasive precisely because it comes from an unimpeachable Republican source.
And knowing all too well Bush's abysmal record, Republicans have taken lately to claiming that presidents really don't have that much to do with economic performance. Forbes addresses this as well, stating directly, "Fairly or not, each president is judged by how much prosperity is delivered on his watch."
Donald Rumsfeld is fond of saying that people are entitled to their own opinions but they are not entitled to their own facts. The facts are undeniable: Bush's economic policies lose by every measure. He fails not just one but every single comparison. The differences could not be more stark.
Bush promises four more years of policies like those he has already inflicted on the American public. But America cannot afford four more years of such destructive ineptitude. The more people understand the facts, the more likely they are to demand a change.
Robert Freeman writes on economics, history |
