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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: saveslivesbyday who wrote (67687)	11/30/2006 1:17:06 PM
From: ChanceIs	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

>>>check out the December KBHLJ/KBHLK 50 by 55 spread, credit of 1.75.<<< I am currently showing $2.10 on that puppy. What do I think??? 1) Nearly all of the homies are up against the bottom of their 200 day lines - probably best to wait a day or two to see if they penetrate. 2) There has been some "warm" news the last few days. An upwards correction is excusable/expected. 3) The broad markets are starting to weaken. The dollar looks ugly. The Fed is leaning towards raising. Why plow money into the homies if we economy/broad markets won't carry the homies along??? That logic doesn't seem to apply. 4) I think that we are in Phase II of a short squeeze. 5) On most threads, someone comes around talking Fibonacci retracements - at least the bullish threads. I think that analysis should apply if the chart is turned upside down. We are due for a considerable retracemnet regardless of a short squeeze. 6) Tax loss selling??? These pups are still down for the year. The faithful shorts might be rewarded come mid December. I think it is a reasonably good play on the fundamentals, especially if you are looking for a short entry point and don't mind becoming short the shares. I did this play with HOV for November, $30 X $35, and now I am sorry. Why not do the $55 X $60 for a $0.35 credit??