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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (33505)	12/2/2006 8:04:31 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95609

Gottfried, Very good questions, and ones that I do not have answers for. <<WHEN will THEY decide the time is right to buy and sell? and, will the price rise be as anemic as in 2005?>> If the semi gains in revenue presently predicted continue to hold up, the SEMI bookings and billings should continue to have higher highs and higher lows. When the AMAT price decides to respond is another question. Don

To: Gottfried who wrote (33505)	12/4/2006 10:57:09 AM
From: etchmeister	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95609

When to buy - perhaps one should rephrase when not to buy; it appears a period of increasing bookings is detrimental to stock price. Once bookings start to turn up the cycle has peaked mania starts to set in. NVLS just received downgrade # 9 but stocks are up while bookings trend to go down. When bookings go down and there is confidence at the same time that end IC end demand will materialize than it seems it's not a bad time because in case end demand materializes chipmakers will once again add new and replace old equipment. The worst thing that always killed the industry and put stocks in downward spiral are periods when chipmakers spent more than what is needed. Longterm decreasing bookings (digestion) is not a bad thing at all. Several projections call for relatively strong 2008. Global chip gear sales seen up 3.7% in 2007-SEMI Sun Dec 3, 2006 4:03pm ET29 Top News TOKYO, Dec 4 (Reuters) - Global sales of equipment used to make and test semiconductors are expected to rise 3.7 percent from a year earlier to $42.14 billion in 2007, an industry group said on Monday. The latest forecast for 2007 by California-based Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) was up from its projection in July of 1.4 percent annual growth. California-based SEMI expects sales in 2008 to grow 13.3 percent from a year earlier to $47.77 billion, up from the previous estimate in July of 12 percent growth.